***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 31.8 32.9 49.6 103.4 59.0 53.3 20.9 28.3 36.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 16.6 26.6 44.4 94.6 51.6 46.6 17.2 25.6 35.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 42.7 47.9 53.5 109.4 63.7 57.0 25.2 36.6 50.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 42.8 48.0 61.1 111.8 65.4 58.0 30.1 38.9 48.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 41.0 49.2 62.5 115.1 68.1 60.5 27.2 36.9 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 43.5 47.6 70.3 123.6 75.0 65.8 24.0 32.1 41.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 14.2 21.6 42.3 91.3 48.8 44.9 14.3 22.2 32.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 78.8 84.6 71.3 123.3 75.2 66.5 54.9 65.5 76.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 46.1 48.3 64.1 118.8 70.9 63.4 24.1 33.3 44.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 56.2 62.8 71.6 123.2 75.0 66.5 30.4 41.4 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 51.7 55.4 62.2 120.2 72.0 63.5 27.2 37.7 49.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 46.8 51.3 62.5 122.8 74.3 65.5 25.6 34.6 44.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 49.0 50.6 64.3 119.2 71.9 63.9 29.3 37.5 46.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 58.1 68.5 68.5 114.0 68.2 60.2 38.2 51.2 66.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 37.5 41.9 56.0 108.3 62.9 55.8 19.5 31.0 45.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 44.2 46.2 62.0 118.9 71.3 62.8 26.9 34.5 42.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 14.7 21.0 39.3 86.6 44.8 41.6 15.7 23.6 33.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 49.6 55.8 78.9 123.3 76.0 67.9 27.4 36.6 47.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 23.1 36.5 48.1 100.5 56.5 50.2 23.3 32.5 43.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 48.8 51.6 87.1 117.1 71.4 64.2 26.7 36.2 47.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 47.4 45.7 57.2 113.6 66.9 60.3 24.6 34.1 45.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 18.5 26.5 43.0 91.6 48.5 44.2 19.4 27.2 36.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.9 39.3 54.6 109.0 63.6 55.7 24.0 31.9 40.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 64.2 66.5 68.7 118.7 71.6 63.9 33.1 45.7 60.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 36.5 37.5 57.6 103.5 58.9 53.3 23.9 32.4 42.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 40.8 41.4 62.8 118.3 71.4 63.6 20.5 28.4 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 34.0 33.7 53.5 101.0 56.8 51.5 23.1 30.5 38.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 34.1 40.3 59.5 113.7 66.8 58.5 20.8 29.5 39.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 78.1 86.7 83.4 122.5 75.8 68.0 44.5 58.6 74.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 18.6 29.5 46.5 98.4 54.9 49.3 18.5 26.9 36.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------