***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 4.4 3.8 1.8 73.2 69.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 3.3 3.6 3.6 1.8 74.7 70.5 0.2 1.6 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 5.7 6.0 3.5 1.8 73.5 69.6 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8 74.2 70.6 -3.7 -1.9 -0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 2.4 2.7 1.5 1.9 74.1 70.2 -0.3 0.9 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 1.8 2.0 -0.2 2.0 72.9 70.6 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 3.6 4.0 3.7 1.9 75.1 70.4 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -3.2 -3.1 0.0 1.7 70.7 67.9 -7.1 -5.3 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 3.6 3.9 2.0 1.8 73.1 69.2 0.7 2.1 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 3.3 3.4 0.6 1.8 71.4 68.1 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 3.2 3.4 1.2 1.8 73.3 69.7 0.7 1.8 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 2.0 2.2 0.8 1.7 71.6 68.7 -0.6 0.6 1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 2.8 3.0 0.4 1.8 72.4 69.8 0.4 1.5 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 4.1 4.3 2.0 1.8 73.1 69.3 1.6 2.7 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 3.7 4.0 1.9 1.8 73.4 69.9 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 3.8 4.0 0.8 1.8 73.1 69.9 1.1 2.3 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 3.7 4.0 3.6 1.8 75.1 70.4 0.8 2.1 3.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 1.4 1.4 -0.1 1.9 70.9 67.9 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 3.6 4.0 3.5 1.8 74.4 70.4 0.4 1.9 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 1.8 69.5 66.9 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 3.1 3.4 3.0 1.8 72.9 69.0 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 3.1 3.4 3.5 1.8 75.1 70.5 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 2.9 3.2 3.1 1.8 74.2 70.3 0.4 1.6 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 3.1 3.3 1.7 1.8 72.6 69.1 0.8 1.9 2.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 3.1 3.4 2.2 1.8 73.9 70.1 0.4 1.6 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 2.7 2.9 0.6 1.7 71.6 69.5 0.4 1.5 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 3.6 4.0 3.1 1.9 73.8 69.6 0.3 1.8 3.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.8 73.4 70.1 -0.5 0.7 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 0.8 0.8 -0.7 1.8 70.7 67.8 -2.7 -1.1 0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 3.9 4.3 3.7 1.8 74.3 70.1 0.7 2.1 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------