***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 12.3 11.7 2.7 73.2 71.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 12.0 12.3 11.6 2.6 72.8 71.6 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 12.5 12.8 11.7 2.4 70.1 69.0 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 5.1 5.3 9.0 2.4 70.1 69.1 0.1 2.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 12.4 12.6 9.9 2.1 67.5 66.6 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 9.7 10.7 7.4 1.2 60.3 59.5 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 11.8 12.3 11.6 2.7 74.1 72.9 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 0.3 1.1 7.6 1.1 59.6 58.9 -2.1 0.0 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 10.7 12.5 10.9 2.1 66.9 66.0 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 10.7 12.0 9.0 1.6 62.7 61.8 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 10.8 12.5 9.6 1.8 64.7 63.9 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 10.1 11.2 8.4 1.3 61.0 60.3 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 11.0 12.1 8.5 1.3 60.9 60.1 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 10.9 12.3 10.5 1.7 63.5 62.6 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.5 12.7 10.6 2.6 72.0 71.0 6.9 9.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 11.3 12.8 9.1 1.7 64.1 63.2 8.5 10.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 11.5 11.9 11.2 2.5 73.2 72.0 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 10.2 11.3 8.1 1.3 60.9 60.0 7.5 9.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.0 12.3 11.7 2.4 71.4 70.2 6.9 9.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 5.7 6.0 5.1 0.6 55.2 54.5 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 12.3 12.6 11.5 2.2 68.4 67.4 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.2 11.2 2.3 70.8 69.6 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 12.4 12.7 11.6 2.2 69.0 68.0 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 10.9 12.4 10.2 1.7 64.0 63.0 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 12.0 12.4 10.3 2.6 72.1 70.9 7.1 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 10.5 11.3 7.3 1.0 59.0 58.3 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 12.4 12.9 11.1 2.6 73.2 71.9 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 12.5 12.5 9.7 2.2 68.4 67.5 7.2 9.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 5.7 6.6 7.1 1.2 59.7 58.8 3.1 5.4 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 11.9 12.3 11.8 2.6 73.0 71.8 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------