***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 14.9 12.8 2.9 77.8 74.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 14.0 14.5 12.6 2.8 77.3 74.3 9.4 11.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 14.0 14.6 12.8 2.8 75.6 72.6 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 5.9 6.6 10.6 2.7 75.1 72.0 1.1 3.2 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 13.7 14.4 10.9 2.6 73.9 70.7 9.6 11.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.9 11.9 8.8 2.0 68.5 65.3 8.3 10.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 13.6 14.3 12.6 2.9 78.5 75.5 9.0 10.9 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 2.7 3.1 9.4 2.3 71.3 67.8 -0.8 0.9 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 13.5 14.2 11.5 2.6 73.1 70.0 9.5 11.5 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 13.6 14.0 10.3 2.4 71.5 68.3 9.5 11.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.5 14.0 10.6 2.5 72.6 69.3 9.4 11.3 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 12.7 13.1 10.2 2.3 71.3 68.0 8.9 10.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.7 9.6 2.2 70.3 67.0 9.9 11.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 13.8 14.4 11.4 2.3 70.7 67.9 9.9 11.9 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.9 10.8 2.6 75.2 72.1 8.4 10.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 13.8 14.2 10.1 2.3 71.5 68.3 10.0 11.8 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 13.2 13.8 12.3 2.7 77.5 74.5 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 13.3 13.7 9.7 2.3 70.4 67.2 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 13.8 14.4 12.7 2.7 76.0 73.0 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 8.6 9.1 7.3 2.3 71.3 67.4 4.9 6.8 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.4 12.2 2.7 74.7 71.7 9.7 11.6 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 13.9 14.5 12.4 2.6 75.3 72.3 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.6 12.6 2.6 73.9 71.0 9.8 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 13.8 14.3 11.3 2.4 71.4 68.5 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 13.5 14.3 11.3 2.9 77.6 74.5 8.9 10.9 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.4 9.3 2.1 70.6 67.3 9.6 11.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 13.8 14.5 12.1 3.0 78.4 75.3 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 13.6 14.1 10.6 2.4 73.3 70.2 8.6 10.9 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 8.4 8.9 8.6 2.3 70.6 67.3 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 13.6 14.2 12.8 2.8 77.4 74.4 9.2 11.0 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------