***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 14.3 13.3 1.9 70.9 67.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 14.7 14.7 13.1 1.8 69.9 66.3 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 15.2 15.4 13.4 1.9 70.0 66.3 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 5.6 8.0 11.5 2.0 70.9 66.7 2.4 4.9 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.6 15.5 11.8 2.0 69.5 65.7 10.7 13.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.5 10.1 2.0 70.2 65.8 9.5 11.8 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.4 13.0 1.7 70.1 66.5 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 3.6 3.4 10.2 1.7 66.5 63.3 -0.8 1.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.4 15.2 12.3 1.9 68.8 65.3 10.6 12.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 14.9 15.0 11.1 1.8 67.1 64.0 10.4 12.7 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 13.5 15.3 11.5 1.9 68.5 64.9 10.6 12.8 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 14.3 14.3 11.1 1.7 67.3 63.9 9.6 12.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 15.1 15.3 10.7 1.8 68.5 64.8 10.6 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.3 12.3 1.8 67.2 64.2 11.2 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.1 15.7 11.7 2.1 72.3 67.6 10.2 12.6 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 14.1 15.9 11.1 1.9 68.9 65.1 11.1 13.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.6 12.8 1.6 68.6 65.3 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.4 10.4 1.8 66.2 63.3 10.1 12.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.9 13.3 1.8 69.7 66.1 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 9.9 9.5 7.9 1.6 65.7 62.9 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 15.0 15.4 12.9 1.9 69.8 66.0 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 14.9 14.6 12.9 1.6 67.9 64.8 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.3 13.3 1.8 69.0 65.6 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 15.1 15.0 12.1 1.8 67.5 64.4 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 14.9 15.2 11.8 1.9 70.8 66.8 10.6 12.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 14.6 14.9 10.3 1.8 69.2 65.3 10.0 12.3 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 14.8 15.1 12.5 1.8 70.6 66.7 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 15.5 16.0 11.7 2.1 71.1 66.7 10.4 12.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 9.8 9.4 9.4 1.7 66.0 63.2 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.8 13.3 1.8 70.3 66.6 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------