***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 15.6 14.3 0.8 59.2 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.6 14.2 0.7 58.8 56.0 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.1 14.4 0.7 58.1 55.3 14.0 15.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.8 12.4 0.5 55.5 53.8 5.8 7.3 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.1 12.7 0.6 56.0 53.9 14.0 15.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.2 11.0 0.7 57.0 54.8 12.9 14.5 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.4 14.1 0.7 59.2 56.3 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.0 11.3 0.6 56.1 53.9 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.9 13.2 0.6 56.4 54.0 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.9 12.1 0.6 55.8 53.6 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.0 12.4 0.6 56.2 54.1 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.3 12.1 0.7 56.7 54.5 13.0 14.7 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.4 11.7 0.7 57.2 55.0 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.2 13.1 0.5 55.2 53.0 14.2 15.7 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.2 12.5 0.5 55.7 54.2 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.5 12.1 0.6 56.3 54.3 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.4 13.8 0.6 57.8 55.3 12.6 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.5 11.4 0.6 55.5 53.2 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 14.3 0.7 58.2 55.4 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.4 9.0 0.6 56.2 53.8 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.0 13.9 0.7 57.1 54.6 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.4 13.9 0.5 56.2 54.0 13.4 14.9 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.0 14.3 0.6 57.2 54.5 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.0 13.0 0.6 55.9 53.5 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.5 12.8 0.6 57.2 54.7 13.7 15.0 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.8 11.3 0.8 58.0 55.7 13.5 15.1 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.8 13.5 0.7 58.4 55.5 13.8 15.1 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.5 12.5 0.5 55.4 53.8 13.6 15.1 16.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.5 10.3 0.6 55.5 53.2 8.3 9.9 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.5 14.3 0.7 59.1 56.1 13.5 14.8 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------