***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 14.4 13.0 2.1 78.9 75.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 13.6 14.1 12.9 2.0 78.2 75.3 10.8 12.0 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 14.0 14.5 13.1 1.9 76.6 73.7 11.2 12.5 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 6.3 6.7 10.9 1.9 75.3 72.5 3.0 4.5 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.5 11.3 1.8 74.0 71.2 11.2 12.5 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.0 9.3 1.5 69.7 67.3 10.1 11.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 13.4 13.9 12.8 2.0 79.2 76.2 10.6 11.7 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 2.7 2.9 9.6 1.4 69.3 66.9 0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 14.0 14.3 12.0 1.8 73.7 70.9 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.1 10.6 1.6 70.8 68.3 11.1 12.5 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.3 11.0 1.7 72.4 69.7 11.2 12.5 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.4 10.5 1.5 70.3 67.8 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.3 10.1 1.5 70.3 67.8 11.4 12.7 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 14.2 14.3 11.8 1.6 70.8 68.4 11.6 12.8 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 13.8 14.2 11.4 1.9 76.1 73.4 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.7 10.6 1.6 71.7 69.2 11.7 13.0 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 12.7 13.2 12.5 1.9 77.7 74.8 10.1 11.3 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.6 9.9 1.5 69.2 66.9 10.8 12.1 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 13.6 14.1 13.0 1.9 77.1 74.2 10.8 12.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 8.7 8.7 7.3 1.3 67.2 65.0 6.0 7.4 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.4 12.6 1.9 75.3 72.4 11.3 12.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 13.6 14.0 12.6 1.7 75.6 72.7 10.9 12.1 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 14.1 14.4 12.9 1.8 75.2 72.3 11.4 12.6 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.3 11.7 1.6 71.4 68.9 11.4 12.7 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 13.6 14.1 11.5 2.0 77.5 74.5 10.7 12.0 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.7 13.8 9.6 1.4 70.2 67.7 10.9 12.2 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.4 12.3 2.1 78.6 75.6 10.9 12.1 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.1 14.4 11.1 1.8 74.0 71.4 10.6 12.2 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 8.7 8.8 8.9 1.5 68.7 66.4 6.0 7.3 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 13.5 14.0 13.0 2.0 78.5 75.5 10.7 11.9 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------