***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 15.5 17.6 138.9 75.2 67.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 10.0 10.8 15.3 130.8 72.9 64.3 2.7 5.1 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.6 16.0 17.5 134.3 74.1 64.3 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 14.0 17.1 22.2 148.0 78.1 67.4 4.9 8.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.2 16.6 21.7 142.6 76.7 67.3 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 10.3 13.4 23.4 158.5 80.6 71.5 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 8.3 9.1 14.9 130.5 72.8 64.4 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 21.1 24.0 21.9 133.7 73.9 66.4 7.3 12.5 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 10.3 12.0 20.2 136.7 74.8 66.1 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 12.2 14.3 22.0 135.9 74.7 67.0 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.3 13.4 21.0 140.5 76.1 66.6 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 8.6 10.3 20.0 134.8 74.2 65.5 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 12.0 15.2 22.1 146.6 77.7 69.2 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 20.1 22.8 20.5 133.4 73.9 64.1 5.0 10.1 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 11.6 16.3 21.5 157.0 80.0 68.0 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 10.0 13.5 21.8 147.8 78.3 68.1 2.3 4.9 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 6.5 7.1 14.7 128.2 72.1 62.8 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 11.4 12.9 22.3 128.8 72.4 64.7 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 11.3 12.2 15.9 129.8 72.6 63.5 3.5 6.3 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 11.3 11.8 25.4 123.1 70.3 64.5 3.4 6.4 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 11.6 14.1 19.1 136.1 74.6 65.6 3.3 6.3 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.0 9.0 15.5 126.2 71.5 61.2 2.6 4.7 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 11.1 12.1 17.2 130.5 72.9 63.0 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 16.3 18.2 20.2 132.0 73.5 64.2 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 11.1 13.8 21.5 143.4 76.7 67.4 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 8.8 10.5 21.4 140.9 76.1 68.7 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 10.2 12.0 19.2 138.3 75.1 66.8 2.2 4.8 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 11.5 16.2 21.8 154.0 79.8 67.8 2.6 5.5 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 18.0 19.2 23.0 125.1 71.0 63.7 5.6 10.1 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 10.5 11.4 15.7 130.9 72.9 64.3 2.7 5.4 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------