***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.9 6.7 54.5 37.4 30.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.6 2.5 7.0 60.9 42.5 33.7 1.7 3.1 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.1 4.1 7.4 58.6 41.2 33.7 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.1 9.2 64.1 45.0 35.9 3.4 5.8 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.0 3.4 9.1 65.6 45.6 37.0 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.1 3.5 11.4 69.7 45.3 38.9 2.2 4.1 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.5 6.5 56.9 40.0 31.6 2.1 3.2 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.2 9.3 11.1 72.8 49.2 40.7 6.1 9.5 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.5 9.4 66.8 47.0 37.9 2.7 5.0 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.3 5.6 10.9 70.6 48.2 39.7 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 5.2 9.1 68.1 47.0 38.4 2.9 5.9 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.1 9.5 71.4 48.7 40.0 3.0 5.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.8 10.2 69.3 46.2 39.2 2.4 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.2 5.5 10.7 69.8 47.0 38.6 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.7 3.5 10.0 70.3 49.0 36.8 1.7 3.7 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.6 4.3 9.5 69.3 46.7 38.7 2.8 4.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 1.6 2.7 7.1 66.6 47.0 34.5 1.9 2.9 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 5.9 12.6 72.9 48.8 40.7 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.2 3.3 7.4 62.8 43.5 34.6 2.3 4.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.5 15.0 75.1 50.1 41.5 2.4 4.5 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.3 3.3 7.9 60.4 43.1 34.4 2.2 4.2 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.4 2.5 7.7 70.0 48.3 36.5 1.5 2.6 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.9 3.0 8.2 64.5 44.6 35.8 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.4 10.5 68.2 46.4 38.6 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.8 2.5 8.4 59.0 40.2 32.7 1.9 3.6 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.0 10.2 70.1 47.0 39.4 1.8 3.3 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.4 3.1 7.6 56.2 37.7 30.8 2.6 4.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.2 9.5 66.7 46.7 36.9 2.6 4.6 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 8.2 13.7 74.7 50.1 41.7 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.8 2.4 6.8 58.0 40.3 32.8 1.9 3.2 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------