***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 7.1 11.7 118.9 69.6 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.1 10.6 11.0 117.2 68.7 56.5 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.3 12.9 11.5 119.2 69.5 54.7 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.1 15.7 12.7 112.3 67.7 53.4 5.7 9.7 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.5 11.1 12.4 115.4 68.6 54.4 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.7 14.9 120.9 69.9 57.0 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.0 8.9 10.6 111.6 66.8 53.8 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 20.4 13.4 118.6 69.1 56.6 6.8 11.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.4 12.1 12.5 117.5 69.0 54.6 2.9 6.2 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.2 15.3 13.9 119.9 69.5 56.1 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.3 14.5 11.8 119.7 69.6 54.6 3.9 7.7 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.1 14.8 11.4 117.8 69.1 55.9 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.0 16.4 13.2 121.6 70.4 58.1 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.1 21.1 14.3 119.3 69.4 57.0 6.4 11.9 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.7 14.2 12.2 110.6 67.8 52.8 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.8 12.5 122.1 70.5 56.5 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.7 11.5 10.5 113.9 67.9 56.4 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.8 15.5 121.2 70.0 57.4 4.3 7.3 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.0 12.5 11.3 119.9 69.6 57.3 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 15.5 17.9 124.8 71.1 60.4 4.4 8.1 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.7 13.7 11.7 119.5 69.8 54.3 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.9 12.5 11.4 121.0 70.1 58.3 3.9 6.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.1 13.6 11.8 117.7 68.9 56.3 4.4 7.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.5 15.8 13.7 118.5 69.1 55.7 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.2 13.6 118.8 69.5 54.6 4.4 8.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.5 12.4 12.6 119.0 69.4 56.5 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.8 13.2 119.5 69.7 54.1 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.7 12.5 111.4 67.7 53.5 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.7 21.5 16.5 123.3 70.6 58.9 6.2 11.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.9 11.1 117.2 68.7 55.1 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------