***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 32.8 47.7 103.3 59.9 54.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.4 30.2 44.2 100.4 58.1 52.8 16.8 25.4 35.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 43.3 44.0 48.3 102.3 58.9 53.0 25.6 37.2 50.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 43.6 46.2 57.8 105.8 61.2 55.1 31.3 39.9 49.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 39.0 42.1 56.7 105.4 60.9 55.3 26.2 35.2 45.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 35.4 39.6 65.1 110.5 64.9 57.8 23.4 31.4 40.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 25.7 25.7 42.8 98.4 56.9 52.2 14.1 21.9 31.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 68.8 72.3 61.5 107.0 61.9 56.5 53.7 64.2 75.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 36.8 38.9 55.2 103.4 59.5 54.1 23.9 33.0 43.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 47.8 50.5 61.5 105.7 61.0 55.6 32.5 42.9 54.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 43.7 47.2 54.7 106.6 61.7 55.9 27.8 38.4 51.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 40.6 43.6 53.9 107.3 62.1 56.0 25.8 35.6 46.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 41.2 45.8 59.8 109.8 64.2 57.8 28.7 37.3 47.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 58.1 62.1 60.8 106.1 61.3 54.7 38.9 52.1 66.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 39.5 43.4 57.0 107.8 62.7 55.3 20.6 32.1 46.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 37.7 41.3 57.2 109.8 64.0 57.4 26.2 34.0 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.0 27.7 42.3 100.0 58.3 53.1 15.7 23.3 32.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 41.4 43.0 66.9 104.8 60.2 55.2 27.9 37.0 47.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 36.5 37.6 45.9 101.8 58.8 53.1 22.8 32.1 42.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 41.3 44.7 78.5 107.0 61.8 57.2 27.7 37.0 47.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 37.8 39.3 50.8 102.5 59.1 53.6 24.2 33.7 44.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 30.6 32.2 45.6 103.4 60.2 54.4 19.4 26.9 35.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 36.7 37.6 49.3 102.9 59.3 52.9 24.3 32.6 41.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 52.8 54.7 59.1 104.2 59.9 54.0 35.0 46.8 60.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 36.2 38.6 57.2 105.4 60.9 55.5 24.4 32.5 41.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 32.3 35.1 57.5 107.4 62.2 55.7 19.8 28.0 37.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 34.2 36.2 53.2 104.4 60.4 55.1 23.2 30.9 39.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 35.5 38.5 57.2 107.0 62.1 55.2 21.5 30.7 41.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 67.4 71.0 71.1 105.8 61.0 56.1 46.9 60.9 76.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 30.8 31.2 45.0 100.5 58.0 52.6 18.4 26.8 36.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------