***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 12.8 13.6 12.5 3.2 77.7 76.1 6.9 9.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 11.9 12.5 12.0 2.7 74.4 73.1 7.1 9.2 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 12.8 13.4 12.7 2.9 74.3 72.9 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 6.5 7.3 9.8 3.6 80.2 78.5 0.3 2.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 13.4 14.2 11.5 3.2 76.8 75.0 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 12.6 13.4 9.9 3.2 77.8 75.8 7.2 9.4 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 11.8 12.3 11.9 2.8 75.5 74.1 6.8 9.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 2.0 2.5 9.1 2.3 70.0 68.3 -1.9 0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.9 12.4 3.0 75.2 73.4 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 12.7 13.2 10.4 2.5 70.7 69.0 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 13.4 14.3 12.0 3.1 75.4 73.6 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.3 13.0 10.3 2.7 73.3 71.6 7.7 9.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 13.4 14.1 11.4 2.9 75.0 73.1 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 49 51 100 12.6 13.1 11.7 2.3 68.6 67.4 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 13.4 14.3 12.2 3.9 81.5 80.1 6.7 9.2 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 13.9 14.7 11.3 3.1 76.6 74.6 8.6 10.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 11.2 11.7 11.3 2.5 73.4 72.1 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 12.3 12.7 9.6 2.4 69.8 68.2 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.5 12.2 2.7 73.4 72.1 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 6.0 7.7 7.0 2.0 68.1 66.4 3.5 5.5 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 13.0 13.6 12.9 2.9 74.9 73.3 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 11.6 12.1 11.5 2.3 71.2 70.0 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 12.4 13.0 12.3 2.6 71.6 70.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 12.8 13.4 11.8 2.5 70.2 68.8 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 12.6 13.3 11.6 3.2 78.1 76.3 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 12.8 13.2 9.3 2.5 74.0 72.2 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 12.8 13.6 12.0 3.1 77.8 76.0 7.4 9.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 14.0 14.9 11.1 3.8 80.8 79.1 7.1 9.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 7.7 8.1 8.7 2.2 68.7 67.1 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.6 12.2 2.9 75.3 73.9 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------