***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 13.1 14.1 12.8 2.9 77.6 70.4 8.5 10.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 13.4 14.5 12.8 2.9 77.9 70.7 8.9 10.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 13.8 14.5 13.0 2.7 75.6 68.6 9.2 11.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 5.6 6.7 10.0 2.8 76.7 70.2 0.7 3.0 5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 13.8 14.2 11.2 2.5 73.7 67.1 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 12.0 12.6 9.7 2.8 75.5 67.3 7.8 9.7 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 13.0 14.2 12.8 2.9 78.5 71.1 8.6 10.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 3.0 3.3 9.6 2.4 73.2 65.6 -1.0 0.8 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 13.7 14.1 11.9 2.4 73.3 66.7 9.1 11.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 13.8 14.0 10.5 2.4 72.5 65.5 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 13.6 13.9 11.4 2.4 72.7 66.2 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 12.9 13.3 10.5 2.4 73.8 66.2 8.4 10.4 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 13.6 14.0 10.8 2.5 73.9 66.2 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.4 11.9 2.5 72.4 65.8 9.4 11.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.0 14.4 11.9 3.0 78.4 72.5 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.4 10.9 2.5 73.9 66.9 9.6 11.5 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 12.7 13.8 12.4 2.8 77.7 70.3 8.4 10.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 13.6 13.9 10.0 2.5 73.1 65.5 8.7 10.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.4 14.4 12.9 2.8 76.8 69.8 8.8 10.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 8.8 9.4 7.7 2.6 75.1 65.5 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 13.8 14.3 12.6 2.5 74.2 67.5 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.4 14.5 12.5 2.6 76.1 69.0 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 13.8 14.6 12.9 2.6 74.8 68.0 9.3 11.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 14.0 14.3 11.8 2.5 72.8 65.9 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 13.1 14.0 11.6 2.8 77.0 70.0 8.5 10.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.9 9.8 2.6 75.4 66.8 9.3 11.1 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 13.3 14.4 12.3 2.9 78.1 70.5 8.8 10.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 13.5 14.5 10.8 2.8 76.2 70.0 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 8.6 9.1 9.2 2.5 73.8 65.4 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 13.1 14.1 12.9 2.9 77.9 70.6 8.7 10.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------