***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.3 12.0 0.7 57.5 55.5 10.4 12.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.5 11.9 0.9 59.2 56.5 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.6 12.3 0.7 56.6 54.9 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 5.4 5.5 9.7 0.6 56.1 55.2 2.1 4.7 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.4 10.4 0.5 54.6 53.7 10.6 12.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.0 8.3 0.3 52.9 52.5 9.3 11.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.7 13.2 11.9 0.9 59.7 56.8 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.0 1.8 9.0 0.5 54.4 53.4 -0.8 1.3 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.2 10.8 0.5 54.4 53.4 10.5 12.7 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.0 9.7 0.4 53.7 52.9 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.2 10.2 0.4 53.6 53.0 10.4 12.7 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.4 9.9 0.5 54.4 53.6 9.5 11.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.3 9.0 0.4 54.0 53.3 10.5 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.8 13.9 10.9 0.7 56.3 54.7 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.3 10.5 0.7 56.6 55.5 10.0 12.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.8 9.7 0.4 54.2 53.6 10.9 13.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.6 11.7 0.9 59.9 56.8 9.9 11.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.0 9.5 0.7 56.0 54.6 10.1 12.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.5 12.1 0.8 58.4 55.9 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.6 6.9 0.9 59.1 56.7 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.4 11.6 0.5 55.1 53.8 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.6 11.8 0.8 59.0 56.1 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.9 12.2 0.7 57.2 55.2 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.5 10.8 0.6 55.7 54.3 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.2 10.4 0.7 56.8 55.3 10.4 12.4 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.0 9.0 0.5 55.6 54.6 10.0 12.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.4 11.3 0.8 57.9 55.8 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.5 9.9 0.6 55.6 54.8 10.2 12.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.2 8.6 0.8 57.5 55.7 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.3 11.9 0.8 58.8 56.3 10.5 12.4 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------