***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.1 13.2 0.7 58.0 54.6 13.1 14.5 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.2 13.0 0.8 58.7 54.9 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.6 13.4 0.6 56.7 53.8 13.7 15.1 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.5 10.8 0.5 55.2 53.3 5.5 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.6 11.5 0.4 53.7 52.2 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.6 9.5 0.3 53.3 52.1 12.5 14.3 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.0 13.0 0.8 59.1 55.1 13.1 14.3 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.5 10.0 0.3 53.2 52.2 1.7 3.3 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.4 11.9 0.4 54.0 52.4 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.4 10.8 0.4 53.5 52.3 13.5 15.1 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.4 11.3 0.3 52.7 51.7 13.6 15.1 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.6 10.9 0.3 52.6 51.7 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.6 10.1 0.3 53.4 52.2 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.6 15.7 11.8 0.5 54.6 52.6 13.9 15.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.1 11.8 0.6 56.7 54.5 13.3 14.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 10.8 0.3 53.3 52.2 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.1 12.8 0.7 58.8 54.9 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.1 10.5 0.5 55.3 53.5 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.3 13.2 0.7 57.9 54.4 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.1 8.0 0.7 57.6 55.2 7.8 9.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.5 12.7 0.5 55.0 52.8 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.1 12.8 0.6 57.5 54.1 13.2 14.5 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.5 13.3 0.6 56.6 53.6 13.7 15.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.6 11.8 0.5 54.9 52.9 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.3 11.6 0.7 57.0 54.1 13.5 14.8 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.1 10.0 0.4 54.3 52.6 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.4 12.5 0.8 58.6 55.0 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.3 11.1 0.5 55.0 53.4 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.2 9.6 0.6 56.1 54.2 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.1 13.1 0.8 58.7 54.9 13.2 14.5 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------