***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 13.0 13.8 12.6 1.9 75.7 70.2 10.4 11.7 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 47 53 100 12.9 13.7 12.4 1.8 75.4 69.9 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 13.5 14.1 12.8 1.7 73.2 68.2 11.0 12.3 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 5.9 6.6 10.1 1.9 74.5 69.9 2.8 4.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 12.7 14.1 11.1 1.6 71.7 67.2 11.0 12.4 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 12.6 13.1 9.3 1.6 71.9 67.3 9.9 11.3 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 12.7 13.5 12.4 1.8 76.3 70.6 10.3 11.5 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 1.7 2.7 9.4 1.4 68.5 64.3 0.1 1.4 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 12.7 14.0 11.7 1.6 71.0 66.6 11.0 12.3 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 12.7 13.8 10.3 1.4 68.6 64.5 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 12.7 14.0 11.2 1.5 70.3 66.1 11.0 12.3 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 12.0 13.2 10.4 1.5 69.7 65.6 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 13.8 14.1 10.3 1.5 70.7 66.4 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.0 14.1 11.6 1.5 69.2 64.8 11.4 12.6 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.4 14.1 11.6 2.1 76.2 71.7 10.1 11.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 46 54 100 14.1 14.5 10.7 1.6 71.4 67.1 11.5 12.8 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 11.3 12.8 12.1 1.7 75.3 69.6 9.9 11.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 13.2 13.5 9.9 1.5 69.7 65.1 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 12.2 13.7 12.6 1.7 74.2 68.9 10.6 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 8.5 8.9 7.4 1.6 71.4 65.7 5.9 7.2 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 47 53 100 13.5 14.0 12.5 1.6 71.9 67.1 11.1 12.3 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 12.2 13.6 12.1 1.6 73.3 67.9 10.7 11.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 12.7 14.0 12.7 1.6 72.1 67.1 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 13.7 14.0 11.5 1.5 69.8 65.2 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 13.1 13.7 11.3 1.8 74.9 69.6 10.5 11.8 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 12.4 13.8 9.5 1.5 71.4 66.9 10.7 12.1 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 13.3 14.0 12.0 1.9 76.1 70.4 10.6 11.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 13.7 14.4 10.7 1.9 74.5 70.1 10.3 12.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 8.5 8.8 9.0 1.5 70.3 65.3 5.8 7.2 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 12.9 13.6 12.5 1.8 75.5 70.0 10.5 11.7 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------