***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-08.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 13.1 17.4 21.7 155.4 79.8 68.4 3.4 6.5 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 12.1 14.6 18.9 143.3 76.5 67.2 3.8 6.7 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 15.2 18.9 19.9 144.0 76.7 65.5 3.2 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 14.6 16.1 22.3 133.8 73.6 66.2 5.2 8.6 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.6 19.0 22.5 147.9 77.7 69.3 4.3 8.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.6 12.0 20.7 140.2 75.7 68.8 3.6 6.0 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.4 13.0 19.4 148.8 77.8 67.7 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 24.1 27.9 24.2 145.5 77.0 70.9 8.3 13.8 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 11.8 15.1 21.2 149.0 78.0 69.0 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.4 15.9 22.6 141.3 76.0 68.6 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.1 12.7 20.7 137.9 75.0 67.7 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 9.7 11.4 21.7 146.0 77.2 70.7 2.9 5.2 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 11.4 14.1 23.4 149.5 78.4 71.7 3.6 6.3 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 19.9 23.3 23.7 137.4 74.9 66.8 4.2 9.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 13.4 15.1 19.0 133.5 73.5 64.9 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 11.1 13.5 22.0 143.0 76.5 69.2 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 8.7 10.5 20.0 147.7 77.6 68.6 3.2 5.2 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.0 16.4 24.9 148.4 78.0 70.5 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.0 15.3 19.0 140.5 75.8 66.6 4.0 7.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 14.0 18.5 33.9 167.3 82.3 75.8 4.2 7.3 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.7 17.8 21.6 150.8 78.6 67.9 3.8 7.1 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 10.8 13.5 21.7 151.1 78.5 70.5 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.0 13.8 19.2 136.3 74.6 65.5 3.5 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.9 20.3 22.1 141.3 76.0 67.0 4.6 8.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 13.0 18.4 25.3 160.2 80.9 70.1 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 10.4 13.8 26.3 170.3 82.9 76.6 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 12.2 16.6 23.3 158.9 80.6 69.6 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 11.7 12.9 19.3 127.4 71.9 64.8 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 19.5 25.3 28.6 157.9 80.2 73.3 5.9 10.4 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 12.3 15.1 19.1 144.1 76.7 66.7 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------