***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.6 12.6 91.7 58.0 48.9 1.8 2.9 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.6 11.2 89.0 57.3 48.6 1.5 2.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.9 13.8 99.4 60.9 51.2 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.0 15.6 104.6 63.3 49.9 3.8 6.4 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.5 7.2 15.8 107.1 64.0 50.3 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.7 15.7 103.9 62.5 50.1 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.3 10.5 86.5 56.1 47.7 1.7 2.8 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.7 16.3 104.7 62.7 52.5 5.7 9.3 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.4 17.1 113.7 66.7 54.5 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.6 17.6 113.7 66.7 55.0 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.8 15.6 106.1 63.3 51.4 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.9 14.6 101.2 61.1 51.0 3.0 5.0 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.1 8.0 16.7 104.9 62.6 50.9 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.1 10.7 18.3 105.4 63.6 53.5 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.6 13.6 96.0 60.9 48.2 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.7 15.8 106.8 63.6 50.9 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.4 10.6 87.5 56.9 48.2 1.6 2.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.5 9.6 18.8 113.7 66.7 54.9 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.7 12.0 91.3 58.1 49.4 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.7 21.5 107.6 63.7 53.9 2.5 4.5 7.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.4 7.4 15.9 110.5 65.5 53.8 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.1 11.8 89.8 57.6 48.7 1.3 2.5 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.1 13.6 95.7 59.5 50.5 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.5 17.5 108.5 64.6 53.4 3.0 6.3 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.1 5.3 15.3 96.9 59.7 48.8 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.6 14.7 93.5 58.0 48.2 1.9 3.6 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.1 13.5 91.6 57.8 48.5 2.3 4.0 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.2 14.6 102.2 62.8 49.3 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.1 14.1 19.9 112.5 66.2 55.1 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.5 11.5 89.7 57.4 48.7 1.4 2.7 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------