***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.2 3.8 8.4 61.3 42.4 32.1 2.6 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.2 4.3 7.7 64.6 45.1 33.5 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.0 5.1 8.1 59.9 42.1 32.1 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 4.4 8.3 11.0 75.3 50.9 38.0 5.2 8.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.4 7.1 9.8 66.5 45.6 35.8 4.8 8.0 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.8 5.7 11.5 75.2 49.6 37.7 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 2.4 4.6 7.6 64.5 45.1 33.5 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.8 12.8 10.4 66.3 45.2 36.8 9.1 14.3 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.3 6.0 9.4 60.8 41.8 33.2 4.7 7.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 7.9 10.1 62.3 42.4 34.6 5.7 9.8 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.3 7.9 9.6 67.3 46.6 37.1 5.2 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.4 7.3 9.6 68.6 46.9 37.3 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.9 6.3 10.6 69.0 45.9 35.5 4.0 7.2 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 4.8 7.6 10.3 59.8 41.9 32.7 5.7 9.4 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.4 6.7 11.0 78.0 54.1 38.5 2.6 5.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.8 6.4 10.3 72.2 48.6 37.5 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.6 5.0 7.8 66.3 46.8 35.1 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.2 6.3 10.4 61.2 41.4 33.5 4.8 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.3 4.6 8.0 65.2 45.2 33.9 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 6.9 12.7 65.3 43.7 34.9 4.8 8.2 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.5 5.6 8.8 61.0 43.0 32.9 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.2 5.4 8.9 72.6 50.0 36.9 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.4 4.1 8.3 62.4 43.5 33.6 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 5.1 7.9 9.3 58.5 41.1 32.3 6.0 10.4 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 2.1 4.2 9.7 64.3 44.5 33.9 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.1 5.3 10.2 67.0 45.8 34.9 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 2.4 4.2 9.0 63.4 43.1 32.7 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.1 5.5 11.1 78.8 53.2 38.9 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 7.3 11.2 11.1 63.0 42.0 34.0 8.3 14.1 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.4 4.4 7.7 62.6 43.8 32.7 2.7 5.6 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------