***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.0 11.9 84.1 56.0 44.0 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.8 10.9 86.5 57.3 45.4 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.5 8.6 12.0 83.5 55.7 43.9 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.1 13.0 86.7 56.6 42.9 4.0 7.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.9 8.3 12.6 83.3 54.6 42.8 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.1 14.4 98.3 60.5 48.2 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.5 10.6 87.1 57.6 45.2 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.9 15.6 14.6 89.8 56.7 46.1 7.6 13.0 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.2 12.9 80.3 53.2 42.5 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.1 14.6 85.5 54.6 44.2 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.6 12.8 88.8 56.8 45.1 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.1 12.8 90.2 57.4 46.3 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.4 11.8 14.1 93.9 58.8 47.6 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.8 14.1 17.6 92.2 59.2 45.8 5.6 10.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.7 8.9 13.0 93.9 60.8 43.5 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.5 13.2 92.8 58.5 46.4 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.4 10.2 87.6 57.8 46.0 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 9.2 16.0 86.4 55.2 44.5 5.1 8.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.0 11.7 87.8 57.8 45.4 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 9.8 17.8 87.1 55.4 45.8 4.7 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.1 12.0 80.2 53.9 42.5 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.3 11.1 86.6 58.1 46.8 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.4 13.3 90.9 58.8 45.1 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.4 10.7 15.0 85.8 56.1 44.2 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.9 8.6 12.8 83.5 55.0 43.4 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.9 12.9 87.6 56.4 45.0 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.4 12.3 83.8 55.6 44.0 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.2 6.4 12.7 89.2 57.8 43.3 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 14.4 17.2 89.6 56.8 46.1 7.3 12.1 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.6 11.4 85.8 57.1 44.6 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------