***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 20.5 30.5 54.6 98.3 54.5 49.9 20.9 28.3 36.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.4 27.7 48.8 96.8 53.8 48.5 17.2 25.6 35.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 25.2 38.9 53.8 96.7 53.0 48.5 25.2 36.6 50.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 43.8 42.9 62.0 101.2 57.0 52.8 30.1 38.9 48.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 41.8 41.2 60.8 101.4 56.8 53.5 27.2 36.9 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 36.3 37.0 62.3 104.2 59.3 53.8 24.0 32.1 41.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.5 24.7 48.2 97.9 54.7 49.1 14.3 22.2 32.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 70.3 70.3 65.5 102.0 57.3 53.4 54.9 65.5 76.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 38.6 36.6 60.6 99.7 55.2 52.1 24.1 33.3 44.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 46.9 45.1 64.9 100.0 55.3 52.1 30.4 41.4 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 43.4 41.8 58.7 100.5 56.0 52.6 27.2 37.7 49.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 39.3 38.9 58.8 102.1 57.4 53.4 25.6 34.6 44.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 42.0 42.7 64.8 104.6 59.7 55.2 29.3 37.5 46.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 37.7 54.7 69.8 98.6 54.1 48.4 38.2 51.2 66.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 38.1 36.9 56.6 100.4 57.2 51.0 19.5 31.0 45.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 38.6 39.3 61.3 104.4 59.5 55.1 26.9 34.5 42.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.1 26.7 48.6 99.1 55.8 49.9 15.7 23.6 33.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 41.1 41.0 70.1 101.9 57.1 53.0 27.4 36.6 47.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 37.4 34.8 50.7 97.0 53.7 48.2 23.3 32.5 43.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 40.7 43.9 86.0 106.9 61.8 56.9 26.7 36.2 47.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 24.4 37.8 58.4 100.4 56.0 51.9 24.6 34.1 45.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 31.5 31.3 53.5 101.8 57.8 51.3 19.4 27.2 36.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 36.1 33.5 54.3 96.8 53.1 47.5 24.0 31.9 40.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 33.0 48.6 64.0 98.1 53.6 49.4 33.1 45.7 60.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 23.7 36.5 63.1 101.7 57.3 52.5 23.9 32.4 42.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 32.9 33.8 64.1 104.8 59.9 55.1 20.5 28.4 37.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 34.6 33.2 58.1 99.7 55.6 50.8 23.1 30.5 38.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 34.7 33.2 57.8 99.9 56.4 51.5 20.8 29.5 39.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 65.5 68.6 76.7 105.7 60.7 55.6 44.5 58.6 74.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 31.9 28.6 49.6 96.2 53.1 48.1 18.5 26.9 36.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------