***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 -0.2 0.7 -1.2 34.8 42.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 0.3 -1.2 34.2 42.5 -0.6 0.7 2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 0.9 1.7 0.4 -1.2 34.0 42.7 1.6 3.0 4.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -5.6 -4.9 -1.9 -1.4 32.6 41.9 -4.9 -3.4 -2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 -1.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.3 33.4 42.5 -1.3 -0.2 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 -2.5 -1.7 -2.8 -0.9 38.8 46.9 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 -1.1 35.2 42.9 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -7.7 -6.8 -2.4 -1.0 38.0 46.6 -7.2 -5.8 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 -0.9 -0.2 -0.9 -1.3 34.0 43.0 -0.3 0.9 2.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 -0.6 0.1 -1.9 -1.1 37.4 45.4 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 -1.1 -0.4 -1.5 -1.1 35.9 44.6 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 -2.1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.0 37.0 45.9 -1.7 -0.6 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 -1.0 -0.3 -1.9 -0.9 38.7 46.4 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -0.4 0.2 -0.8 -1.3 34.4 42.9 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 -0.7 -0.2 -1.4 -1.4 32.0 42.2 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 -0.3 0.4 -1.7 -0.9 37.5 45.3 0.1 1.2 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 -0.9 -0.1 0.2 -1.2 34.7 42.4 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -2.6 -1.7 -2.4 -0.9 39.8 46.4 -2.2 -1.0 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 -1.3 -0.6 0.3 -1.2 33.5 42.3 -0.6 0.9 2.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -5.0 -4.1 -3.9 -0.8 41.0 47.6 -4.7 -3.4 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 -1.4 -0.7 -0.1 -1.3 33.8 42.6 -0.7 0.5 1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 -1.3 -0.7 0.2 -1.3 33.2 41.7 -0.7 0.6 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 -1.6 -0.9 0.2 -1.3 32.9 42.2 -0.9 0.4 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 -1.0 -0.3 -1.0 -1.1 36.2 44.1 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 -1.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 35.1 43.0 -0.7 0.5 1.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 -1.0 -0.3 -1.8 -0.9 38.2 46.3 -0.6 0.4 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 -1.7 -0.7 0.1 -1.1 35.8 43.2 -1.0 0.6 2.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 -2.4 -1.8 -1.6 -1.3 33.2 42.3 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -3.8 -2.7 -3.0 -0.9 40.6 47.1 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 -1.2 34.3 42.7 -0.5 0.9 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------