***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.8 1.7 -0.8 38.1 46.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 0.1 0.7 1.3 -0.9 35.9 44.1 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.1 1.5 -0.8 37.3 46.5 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -4.2 -2.9 -0.4 -0.7 39.3 47.7 -3.6 -1.7 0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 -0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 40.5 48.8 -0.3 1.1 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -1.1 0.2 -1.7 -0.3 46.0 51.4 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.3 1.0 1.4 -0.9 36.5 44.4 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -7.3 -5.8 -1.3 -0.4 44.1 51.9 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 0.6 1.6 0.4 -0.6 41.0 49.5 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.8 -0.8 -0.4 43.3 51.3 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 0.5 1.5 -0.3 -0.5 41.7 49.4 0.9 2.0 3.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -0.7 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 44.5 51.4 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 0.2 1.5 -0.9 -0.2 47.1 51.8 0.5 1.6 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 1.4 2.1 0.2 -0.8 37.0 46.4 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.8 1.6 0.1 -0.7 39.0 47.3 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 0.8 2.0 -0.6 -0.4 43.9 50.2 1.2 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 0.5 1.2 1.2 -0.9 36.1 43.1 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -0.8 0.1 -1.4 -0.4 43.9 51.7 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 0.2 0.9 1.3 -0.9 35.9 44.4 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -4.0 -2.7 -2.9 -0.2 47.0 53.1 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 0.5 1.3 1.2 -0.7 39.3 48.4 0.8 2.0 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 0.1 0.8 1.3 -0.9 36.6 43.2 0.5 1.8 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 0.2 0.8 1.2 -0.9 36.0 45.0 0.6 1.7 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.4 0.1 -0.7 39.3 48.6 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 0.1 0.9 0.3 -0.8 38.0 46.9 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 0.1 1.4 -0.6 -0.1 49.1 52.9 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 0.1 1.0 1.0 -0.8 38.1 46.7 0.6 2.1 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -0.9 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 40.5 48.3 -0.5 0.8 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -2.9 -1.5 -2.0 -0.4 43.9 51.6 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 0.5 1.2 1.5 -0.9 36.3 44.9 0.9 2.3 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------