***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 4.5 3.4 -0.3 45.7 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.4 3.0 -0.3 45.2 46.4 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.9 3.2 -0.2 47.2 47.9 4.9 6.1 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -1.3 -0.2 1.4 -0.2 46.6 47.8 -1.1 0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.1 1.6 0.0 49.7 49.6 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.5 -0.2 0.2 53.1 52.5 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.5 3.0 -0.3 44.5 45.9 2.8 3.9 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -2.5 -2.9 0.2 0.2 53.1 52.0 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.9 2.1 0.0 49.7 49.5 2.7 3.9 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.1 0.8 0.1 51.6 50.9 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.9 1.3 0.2 52.6 51.6 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.6 1.0 0.2 53.9 52.5 1.0 2.3 3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.5 0.5 0.2 53.6 52.3 2.0 3.3 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.1 1.9 -0.1 48.9 48.6 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.9 3.7 1.8 -0.4 42.8 45.8 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.5 0.9 0.1 52.4 51.7 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.7 2.8 -0.4 43.3 45.0 3.1 4.0 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.1 51.7 51.1 0.5 1.6 2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.4 3.5 3.1 -0.2 45.9 46.9 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -2.3 -0.8 -1.5 0.2 52.5 52.2 -2.2 -1.0 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.6 2.8 -0.1 48.1 48.6 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.8 2.8 2.8 -0.3 43.9 45.3 2.2 3.2 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.1 2.9 -0.2 47.2 47.7 2.2 3.3 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.5 1.8 0.0 49.9 49.6 2.5 3.5 4.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.7 2.0 -0.3 45.5 46.8 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.6 0.7 0.3 54.9 53.4 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.0 2.7 -0.3 44.9 46.4 3.0 4.4 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.1 2.2 1.6 -0.2 46.4 48.2 1.3 2.4 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 1.4 1.0 -0.4 0.2 52.8 52.1 -0.4 0.8 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.9 3.2 -0.3 45.7 46.8 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------