***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 11.0 10.2 0.5 54.4 54.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 10.1 10.2 10.2 0.7 56.4 55.9 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 10.5 10.7 10.7 0.6 55.6 55.2 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 3.1 1.6 6.8 -0.7 44.1 44.7 0.0 2.3 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 10.7 10.1 8.7 0.0 50.2 50.2 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 9.6 9.6 7.6 0.5 54.2 54.0 6.8 9.1 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 9.8 10.1 10.0 0.7 56.9 56.4 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 0.3 0.4 8.0 0.6 54.6 54.4 -2.2 -0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 10.7 10.8 10.3 0.6 54.9 54.6 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 10.8 11.1 9.2 0.8 56.3 55.9 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 10.8 10.7 9.2 0.4 53.4 53.3 7.9 10.2 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 10.1 9.9 8.5 0.3 52.2 52.2 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 11.0 11.0 8.7 0.4 53.7 53.6 8.2 10.5 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 11.2 12.0 10.9 1.4 60.6 60.0 8.0 10.4 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.2 8.5 8.2 -0.7 43.8 44.4 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 11.3 11.2 8.9 0.5 53.9 53.8 8.4 10.7 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 9.7 9.9 9.8 0.8 57.3 56.8 6.9 9.0 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 10.4 11.3 9.1 1.4 61.3 60.6 7.4 9.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 10.0 10.3 10.4 0.7 56.7 56.2 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 5.7 6.7 6.9 1.5 62.1 61.5 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 10.6 10.6 10.5 0.5 54.1 53.8 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 10.3 10.6 10.2 0.8 57.3 56.8 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 10.7 11.1 10.8 0.9 57.4 57.0 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 10.9 11.7 10.6 1.2 59.9 59.2 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 10.0 9.7 8.7 0.2 52.1 51.9 7.2 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 10.5 9.9 7.1 -0.2 48.3 48.6 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 10.2 10.3 9.6 0.6 55.1 54.6 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.6 9.1 7.9 -0.5 45.3 45.9 7.2 9.7 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 5.7 6.8 8.5 1.7 63.4 62.7 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 9.9 10.1 10.3 0.6 55.9 55.5 7.2 9.4 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------