***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 8.0 8.4 -2.3 25.1 35.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 8.7 8.8 8.1 -2.4 23.9 34.8 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 8.9 9.0 8.5 -2.4 25.0 34.9 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 0.1 0.2 6.4 -2.6 24.1 33.8 1.4 3.5 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 9.0 9.0 6.9 -2.6 24.6 34.3 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 7.9 8.0 5.6 -2.3 26.9 36.4 8.7 10.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 8.4 8.4 8.1 -2.4 23.8 34.9 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 -1.4 -1.3 6.0 -2.3 26.2 35.8 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 8.8 8.9 7.5 -2.5 25.2 34.7 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 8.8 9.0 6.6 -2.3 26.5 35.8 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 8.8 8.8 6.8 -2.4 25.2 35.1 9.8 11.7 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 8.3 8.2 6.7 -2.4 24.9 35.1 9.2 11.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 9.2 9.4 6.2 -2.3 25.7 35.6 10.2 11.9 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 9.0 9.3 7.6 -2.4 25.6 35.0 10.3 12.2 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 7.5 7.5 6.5 -2.7 23.7 33.6 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 9.5 9.6 6.5 -2.4 25.4 35.2 10.5 12.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 7.9 8.0 7.9 -2.4 24.0 34.9 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 8.8 9.1 6.2 -2.2 28.1 36.7 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 8.4 8.6 8.3 -2.4 24.2 34.8 9.7 11.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.3 4.8 4.1 -1.9 29.4 37.7 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 9.1 9.1 8.0 -2.5 25.0 34.6 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 8.7 8.7 8.1 -2.4 24.3 34.9 9.8 11.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 8.9 9.1 8.4 -2.5 24.5 34.7 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 9.2 9.5 7.5 -2.4 26.5 35.6 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 8.4 8.3 6.9 -2.4 25.1 34.7 9.3 11.2 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 9.1 9.1 6.0 -2.3 25.2 35.1 10.0 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 8.7 8.7 7.6 -2.3 25.4 35.3 9.6 11.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 7.7 7.7 6.6 -2.7 24.1 33.9 9.0 11.3 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 4.1 4.5 5.3 -2.1 28.8 37.2 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 8.5 8.5 8.3 -2.4 24.2 34.9 9.6 11.4 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------