***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 10.5 10.5 -1.2 35.2 41.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 10.3 10.8 10.1 -1.4 31.9 38.9 11.0 12.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.7 11.6 10.6 -1.2 35.1 41.1 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.2 3.7 9.0 -1.0 38.9 44.2 2.8 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.9 9.4 -1.0 39.0 44.0 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 9.1 11.6 8.1 -0.4 46.0 48.1 9.9 12.1 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.6 10.0 -1.4 31.9 38.7 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -1.1 0.4 8.1 -0.9 39.8 43.9 -0.4 1.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.8 9.9 -1.0 38.4 43.4 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.7 8.9 -1.0 39.5 43.8 10.8 13.0 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.9 9.2 -0.9 40.2 44.7 11.0 13.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 9.3 11.1 9.0 -0.9 40.1 44.3 10.1 12.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 10.2 12.3 8.6 -0.6 42.9 46.0 11.0 13.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.9 12.0 9.6 -1.2 36.6 41.4 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.5 9.2 -1.0 39.2 44.6 10.6 12.9 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 10.7 12.6 9.0 -0.7 41.7 45.7 11.4 13.7 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.0 9.8 -1.5 31.1 38.0 10.2 11.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.4 8.2 -1.0 39.4 43.3 10.6 12.7 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.5 11.1 10.3 -1.4 32.7 39.3 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.9 6.5 6.0 -0.9 40.5 43.8 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.8 10.3 -1.1 37.3 42.7 11.2 13.3 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 10.5 11.1 10.0 -1.5 32.0 38.5 11.2 12.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.7 10.4 -1.4 34.2 40.1 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.8 9.6 -1.2 37.5 42.2 11.3 13.2 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 10.2 11.4 9.1 -1.1 37.2 42.6 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.6 11.8 8.4 -0.5 43.5 46.1 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.3 9.7 -1.1 35.8 41.5 11.0 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 10.2 11.8 9.3 -0.9 40.0 45.1 10.8 13.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.0 6.5 7.2 -0.9 40.0 43.6 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 10.3 10.8 10.3 -1.4 32.7 39.5 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------