***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 15.2 12.4 -0.3 46.5 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.8 12.0 -0.4 45.5 46.7 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 13.8 15.3 12.4 -0.3 45.8 46.9 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.5 7.0 10.8 -0.4 45.2 46.6 5.9 7.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.7 15.3 11.1 -0.3 46.4 47.2 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.6 14.4 9.4 -0.3 47.1 48.0 13.0 14.6 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 13.3 14.6 11.9 -0.3 45.7 46.8 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.4 9.7 -0.2 47.2 48.0 2.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.5 15.1 11.6 -0.3 46.5 47.2 13.8 15.5 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 13.5 15.3 10.4 -0.3 46.8 47.5 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 13.5 15.3 10.8 -0.3 47.0 47.7 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.7 14.5 10.6 -0.2 47.5 48.3 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.7 15.6 10.1 -0.2 47.8 48.5 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 13.8 15.4 11.1 -0.4 45.2 46.4 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 13.0 14.3 11.0 -0.5 43.6 45.6 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 13.9 15.7 10.5 -0.3 46.9 47.8 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 12.5 13.8 11.6 -0.4 44.9 46.2 12.8 14.2 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 13.1 14.9 9.7 -0.3 46.8 47.4 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.5 14.9 12.1 -0.4 45.4 46.6 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.0 9.8 7.4 -0.2 47.7 48.3 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 13.6 15.2 12.1 -0.3 46.2 47.1 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 13.3 14.7 11.8 -0.4 44.7 46.0 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 13.9 15.3 12.2 -0.4 45.3 46.5 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 13.6 15.3 11.2 -0.4 45.9 46.8 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.5 14.9 11.0 -0.3 46.5 47.5 13.7 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.4 15.1 9.9 -0.1 48.5 49.0 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.1 11.6 -0.3 46.9 47.8 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.7 11.0 -0.5 44.4 46.1 13.6 15.2 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 9.8 8.7 -0.3 47.2 47.8 8.3 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.8 12.2 -0.3 45.8 46.9 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------