***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 10.7 10.3 -0.8 36.0 40.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.8 11.3 10.1 -0.9 35.1 39.6 11.1 12.3 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 11.0 11.7 10.5 -0.8 36.2 40.3 11.5 12.7 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.2 8.3 -1.2 32.1 37.4 3.2 4.6 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.6 9.0 -1.0 35.1 39.5 11.4 12.7 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 10.0 10.9 7.7 -0.6 40.8 43.8 10.3 11.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.0 10.0 -0.9 35.4 39.8 10.8 12.0 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 0.0 0.7 8.0 -0.7 38.5 41.9 0.3 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.7 9.8 -0.8 37.3 41.0 11.3 12.6 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 11.1 11.8 8.8 -0.7 39.1 42.3 11.3 12.6 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.7 9.0 -0.8 37.6 41.3 11.3 12.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 10.1 10.9 8.7 -0.8 36.9 41.0 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 11.2 12.0 8.4 -0.7 39.1 42.6 11.6 12.9 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 11.4 12.3 9.8 -0.7 39.3 42.5 11.8 13.0 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 10.1 10.5 8.7 -1.2 31.8 37.3 10.6 12.0 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 11.4 12.3 8.7 -0.7 38.2 42.0 11.8 13.2 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.1 10.5 9.8 -0.9 35.3 39.6 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 11.7 8.3 -0.5 42.2 44.4 11.0 12.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 10.7 11.3 10.3 -0.9 35.4 39.9 11.1 12.3 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.0 6.1 -0.4 43.9 45.7 6.2 7.5 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.7 10.3 -0.8 36.5 40.4 11.5 12.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 10.9 11.4 10.0 -0.9 35.5 39.8 11.2 12.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 11.2 11.9 10.4 -0.8 36.2 40.4 11.6 12.8 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 11.3 12.1 9.7 -0.7 39.8 42.8 11.6 12.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 10.5 11.2 8.9 -0.9 35.9 40.0 11.0 12.2 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.4 7.9 -0.8 37.0 40.8 11.1 12.4 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 10.7 11.4 9.7 -0.8 36.9 40.8 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 10.4 10.8 8.7 -1.1 32.8 38.1 10.8 12.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.0 7.4 -0.4 44.0 45.7 6.1 7.4 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 10.6 11.1 10.3 -0.9 35.3 39.8 11.0 12.1 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------