***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 5.8 19.2 150.7 77.8 68.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.6 7.0 17.2 150.9 77.9 68.2 1.9 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 10.1 12.9 19.2 152.8 78.3 69.3 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 10.3 11.1 21.5 137.8 74.8 69.5 3.1 5.4 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 8.1 9.2 20.9 137.5 74.7 68.8 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 7.8 8.2 22.1 124.3 71.0 65.6 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 4.6 5.8 17.1 146.3 76.8 66.9 2.0 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 16.1 17.2 22.4 137.5 74.7 68.7 7.5 10.7 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 10.2 11.9 21.1 139.9 75.4 68.5 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 13.1 14.9 22.4 138.9 75.1 68.8 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 12.1 13.2 19.9 134.9 74.1 68.5 2.7 5.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 10.2 11.3 20.0 137.5 74.7 68.5 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 8.1 8.5 20.9 128.4 72.3 67.0 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 13.1 17.6 23.3 160.0 80.2 71.1 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 8.4 9.7 21.8 141.1 75.6 69.7 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 8.4 8.8 20.3 131.6 73.2 67.9 2.6 4.5 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 4.4 5.5 16.1 147.3 77.1 66.2 1.8 2.9 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 11.6 13.7 24.9 144.5 76.7 69.7 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.8 8.6 17.7 153.9 78.6 69.2 2.2 3.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 9.2 9.7 27.8 132.6 73.4 67.7 3.6 5.6 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 8.6 10.6 20.0 144.9 76.5 68.6 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 5.1 6.5 16.9 149.9 77.7 67.6 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 6.9 8.9 19.0 156.9 79.3 70.0 2.3 3.9 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 13.8 18.2 22.8 153.4 78.8 70.4 3.2 6.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 7.5 8.8 21.7 142.3 75.9 68.6 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 5.5 6.0 20.5 128.5 72.4 66.8 1.6 3.0 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 7.9 9.9 20.6 146.2 76.8 68.2 2.3 4.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 7.8 8.3 21.2 136.2 74.4 69.1 2.0 3.9 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 18.5 21.3 26.0 141.9 75.9 69.4 4.7 9.1 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.2 6.5 17.8 151.7 78.1 68.7 1.9 3.1 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------