***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 9.2 14.2 121.3 69.7 60.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 10.9 11.5 15.4 128.2 72.1 63.3 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.0 14.5 119.6 69.1 60.1 3.3 7.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.1 11.8 15.7 117.5 68.4 58.7 4.9 7.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.3 14.1 15.5 119.6 69.2 59.2 4.4 8.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.0 10.2 18.3 115.9 67.6 58.0 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 9.8 10.9 15.3 131.5 73.2 63.1 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.7 23.0 17.0 121.8 69.9 60.5 8.0 13.4 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.4 15.6 123.2 70.4 60.2 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.2 16.7 122.8 70.3 59.9 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.5 15.3 14.5 118.2 68.7 58.0 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.0 14.5 15.0 120.2 69.4 59.8 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 13.6 12.9 16.8 119.6 69.0 59.8 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.3 15.8 18.0 121.8 69.8 61.7 5.3 9.1 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.1 13.4 15.2 117.6 68.7 58.5 3.2 6.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 11.7 11.0 15.4 117.8 68.5 58.4 3.3 6.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.3 15.3 128.9 72.3 62.6 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 13.0 13.2 19.0 126.1 71.5 61.2 3.7 6.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 13.1 13.4 15.3 124.9 71.0 62.8 2.4 5.7 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 14.1 14.6 23.2 124.6 71.0 62.0 4.1 7.6 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 11.6 11.5 14.6 120.8 69.6 59.9 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.3 15.7 122.5 70.3 62.2 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.2 15.7 123.4 70.5 62.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.3 17.2 123.6 70.6 61.1 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.2 10.4 16.2 120.8 69.5 60.5 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.2 16.9 120.4 69.4 61.4 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.4 9.5 15.7 122.9 70.3 60.7 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.9 15.4 117.2 68.4 58.1 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 23.1 23.4 20.7 125.7 71.4 61.8 5.9 11.6 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 11.5 12.3 15.0 126.4 71.5 62.7 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------