***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 7.7 13.3 103.4 62.7 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.5 12.7 96.7 59.8 49.5 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.7 14.0 109.0 64.9 52.8 3.5 7.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.9 15.3 16.5 107.3 64.7 53.0 5.7 10.0 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.1 10.5 16.5 112.1 66.3 53.8 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.1 18.6 104.7 63.2 52.3 5.5 9.2 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.7 12.3 92.1 57.6 47.8 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.7 18.7 17.6 113.0 66.3 54.6 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.9 16.2 115.3 67.4 54.5 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.5 14.3 17.9 117.5 68.2 55.7 4.0 7.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.8 12.8 16.1 114.3 67.1 53.8 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.3 12.9 15.8 111.2 65.8 53.2 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.9 15.2 17.3 107.8 64.5 53.2 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.6 17.7 17.6 110.5 65.2 53.3 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 13.5 15.2 102.3 63.7 52.5 3.7 8.0 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.0 12.8 16.9 112.5 66.5 53.9 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.0 11.7 88.4 56.5 47.9 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 12.5 19.8 120.4 69.3 57.6 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.3 13.2 102.3 62.3 51.1 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.4 14.5 22.2 115.0 67.0 57.6 4.9 8.8 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.9 14.8 112.1 66.2 53.3 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.8 12.0 90.2 57.3 48.2 4.1 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.6 12.4 14.3 109.2 65.0 52.8 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.2 14.8 17.5 117.0 67.9 55.8 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.1 16.0 106.2 63.6 52.0 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.9 15.9 99.8 61.2 51.0 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.8 14.7 102.0 61.8 50.3 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.0 11.6 16.4 107.9 65.4 53.6 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.5 20.4 20.7 118.5 68.5 57.6 6.7 12.0 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.8 8.1 13.0 99.6 61.0 49.9 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------