***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 35.0 57.1 110.0 64.0 58.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 28.1 30.7 54.0 105.6 60.9 56.1 16.2 24.5 34.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 41.4 49.0 58.9 112.3 65.7 59.6 25.1 36.4 49.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 44.2 49.0 67.2 111.2 64.8 58.9 31.2 40.1 49.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 39.2 45.3 66.7 113.0 66.2 59.6 26.0 34.9 45.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 37.4 41.0 72.6 109.7 64.3 58.2 25.8 33.6 42.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 24.8 26.2 52.8 103.5 59.3 54.6 13.7 21.1 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 68.3 78.0 72.6 116.2 69.6 61.8 52.6 63.6 75.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 36.1 44.0 67.1 116.0 68.3 61.3 23.2 32.2 42.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 46.8 57.4 72.5 117.5 70.3 62.6 31.9 42.1 53.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 44.2 52.2 64.9 114.5 67.5 60.1 27.7 38.4 50.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 40.6 48.3 64.6 114.3 67.9 60.2 26.3 35.8 46.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 43.4 48.2 68.6 110.3 64.8 58.5 29.7 38.9 49.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 66.8 68.5 73.5 116.8 69.7 64.5 37.5 50.3 64.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 38.6 47.2 65.6 113.2 66.0 60.1 20.3 32.4 47.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 37.9 42.2 65.9 111.6 65.5 58.8 26.4 34.1 42.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.0 50.9 99.8 56.8 52.8 15.2 22.5 31.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 48.0 50.8 79.6 118.8 71.9 64.4 27.4 36.3 46.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 34.7 39.0 56.0 108.3 62.9 57.8 21.8 30.9 41.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 41.8 50.3 91.8 114.8 69.2 61.9 27.4 37.0 47.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 36.0 43.7 62.4 114.7 67.2 60.3 23.1 32.2 42.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.5 53.7 101.2 57.6 53.6 18.8 25.9 34.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 34.7 41.1 60.3 112.6 66.1 60.7 23.3 31.7 40.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 51.0 63.5 71.6 118.1 70.6 64.2 34.3 46.0 59.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 35.7 39.4 65.5 108.9 63.3 57.9 24.2 32.1 41.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 32.6 36.5 67.2 108.8 63.5 57.7 19.8 28.2 38.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 34.0 36.9 61.3 107.7 62.4 57.0 23.0 30.7 39.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 35.4 41.7 66.3 112.6 65.7 59.5 21.7 31.0 41.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 79.0 81.4 83.6 117.0 70.7 63.7 46.2 60.2 76.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.4 33.3 55.1 107.6 62.3 57.1 18.1 26.2 35.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------