***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 3.4 4.4 4.5 3.3 83.2 82.0 -1.7 0.2 2.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 3.1 4.4 4.5 3.6 85.9 84.4 -1.8 0.0 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 5.0 6.0 4.8 3.5 83.9 82.6 0.5 2.2 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 -1.0 0.0 1.8 3.2 83.4 81.9 -6.0 -4.1 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 1.7 2.1 2.6 2.7 77.9 76.8 -2.1 -0.6 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 0.5 0.7 -0.6 2.2 74.9 74.1 -3.1 -1.6 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 3.0 4.4 4.5 3.6 86.1 84.5 -1.5 0.2 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 -4.3 -4.3 -0.6 2.0 72.3 71.5 -9.0 -7.0 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 2.5 2.6 1.7 2.0 72.6 71.7 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 2.5 2.7 0.5 2.3 75.2 74.2 -1.0 0.4 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 2.3 2.5 1.6 2.3 75.5 74.5 -1.2 0.2 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.6 77.4 76.3 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 1.6 1.9 1.1 2.4 76.7 75.7 -1.6 -0.3 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 3.4 4.4 3.1 3.7 85.4 83.8 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 2.9 3.6 2.6 3.0 82.0 80.6 -0.9 0.5 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 2.9 3.3 1.6 2.8 78.9 77.9 -0.8 0.7 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 3.1 4.9 4.5 3.9 88.5 86.8 -1.4 0.3 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 0.5 1.1 0.9 3.1 81.9 80.5 -3.0 -1.7 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 3.2 4.3 4.2 3.3 84.3 82.9 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 -1.7 -1.2 -0.7 2.7 78.9 77.6 -6.6 -4.7 -2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 2.6 3.2 3.8 2.9 80.2 79.1 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 3.0 4.5 4.5 3.7 87.3 85.8 -1.7 0.0 1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 2.6 3.2 3.7 3.0 81.5 80.2 -1.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 2.5 3.3 2.8 3.2 83.3 81.7 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 2.6 3.3 4.0 3.4 82.5 81.4 -1.4 0.1 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 1.8 2.0 0.6 2.4 76.5 75.6 -1.8 -0.3 1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 3.5 4.6 4.5 3.6 83.7 82.4 -1.7 0.2 2.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 1.4 2.5 2.7 3.7 86.1 84.3 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 0.0 0.6 -0.2 2.8 79.2 77.9 -4.7 -2.9 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 3.5 4.6 4.5 3.4 84.1 82.8 -1.5 0.4 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------