***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 3.8 3.9 3.9 1.6 69.9 65.5 0.8 2.2 3.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 3.3 3.6 3.8 1.6 71.4 66.8 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.0 3.9 1.6 71.2 66.9 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.6 69.5 66.5 -3.6 -1.7 0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 2.5 2.5 1.4 1.4 68.3 65.2 -0.3 1.1 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 1.8 1.7 -1.0 1.4 66.5 64.4 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 3.5 3.8 3.8 1.6 70.9 66.4 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -3.1 -3.4 -0.9 1.3 66.6 64.7 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 3.9 3.8 1.7 1.4 68.9 65.4 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 3.6 3.4 0.0 1.4 67.7 65.0 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 3.4 3.3 0.6 1.4 67.6 65.1 0.9 2.0 3.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 2.2 2.0 -0.1 1.3 66.8 64.8 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 2.9 2.7 -0.6 1.2 65.0 63.0 0.5 1.6 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 4.1 4.4 1.7 1.6 71.3 67.5 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 4.0 4.0 2.2 1.7 71.6 68.4 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 3.9 3.7 0.0 1.3 66.6 64.5 1.2 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 3.6 3.8 3.7 1.6 70.9 66.2 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 1.6 1.5 -0.5 1.5 68.9 66.2 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 3.5 3.8 3.7 1.6 71.6 67.1 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.6 1.3 65.5 63.8 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 3.5 3.5 3.1 1.5 69.4 65.4 0.8 2.0 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 3.1 3.3 3.4 1.6 71.3 67.0 0.5 1.8 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 3.0 3.2 3.5 1.6 71.6 67.3 0.6 1.7 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 3.5 3.5 1.5 1.6 71.1 67.6 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 3.2 3.3 2.5 1.6 69.4 65.3 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 2.7 2.4 -0.9 1.1 63.9 62.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 3.8 3.8 3.3 1.6 69.2 64.9 0.6 2.1 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 2.5 2.4 1.2 1.5 69.5 66.7 -0.5 0.8 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 0.9 0.8 -1.1 1.6 68.9 66.4 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 3.9 4.2 3.8 1.6 71.4 66.9 0.9 2.3 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------