***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 11.8 13.0 11.3 1.6 65.4 62.4 9.3 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.2 13.2 11.3 1.5 64.7 62.2 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 12.4 13.3 11.4 1.3 62.9 60.3 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 4.1 5.7 8.6 1.9 67.4 64.0 1.4 3.5 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 12.4 13.3 9.6 1.3 62.5 59.6 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.7 7.9 1.4 63.2 59.9 8.7 10.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.9 11.3 1.5 65.2 62.7 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.9 7.7 0.9 58.7 56.3 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 12.3 13.1 10.3 1.2 61.6 58.8 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.7 8.6 0.9 58.4 56.0 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 12.3 13.0 9.8 1.3 62.1 59.2 9.8 11.7 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.7 12.3 8.9 1.2 61.7 58.8 9.2 11.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.5 13.0 9.0 1.1 61.2 58.3 10.2 11.9 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.4 10.2 1.1 59.9 57.5 10.3 12.2 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.6 10.6 2.3 71.4 67.8 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.6 9.3 1.4 63.1 60.1 10.5 12.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 11.4 12.5 11.0 1.5 64.7 62.4 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.5 8.1 0.9 58.0 55.6 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 12.1 13.2 11.3 1.4 64.0 61.5 9.7 11.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.6 5.6 0.5 55.7 53.4 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 12.4 13.2 11.0 1.2 61.8 59.1 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 12.3 13.2 11.0 1.3 63.1 60.8 9.8 11.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 12.6 13.5 11.4 1.4 63.1 60.5 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.2 10.1 1.1 59.8 57.3 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 11.8 12.9 9.9 1.6 65.3 62.2 9.3 11.2 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.8 8.0 1.2 62.5 59.3 10.0 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.0 13.0 10.7 1.5 64.9 62.0 9.6 11.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 11.9 13.7 9.5 2.0 68.4 64.8 9.0 11.3 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.6 7.2 0.7 56.8 54.5 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.9 11.3 1.5 64.8 62.1 9.6 11.4 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------