***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.7 15.4 13.3 1.9 70.3 64.7 11.1 13.1 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 14.7 15.2 13.2 2.0 72.1 66.0 11.0 12.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.0 15.5 13.6 1.8 68.9 63.4 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 6.1 7.8 10.9 1.7 67.3 62.7 2.8 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.0 15.1 11.5 1.4 64.5 60.5 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.7 9.4 1.3 62.3 57.9 9.9 12.1 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 14.4 15.0 13.3 2.0 73.0 66.6 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.5 3.0 9.8 1.1 61.3 57.8 -0.4 1.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.9 11.9 1.4 64.0 60.0 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.6 10.7 1.2 62.2 58.4 10.8 13.0 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.8 11.3 1.3 63.2 59.4 11.0 13.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 14.0 10.7 1.2 62.3 58.8 10.1 12.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.8 9.9 1.2 62.4 58.7 11.0 13.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.1 11.9 1.4 64.5 59.8 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.4 15.7 11.7 1.9 69.9 64.3 10.6 12.9 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.4 15.5 10.8 1.4 63.9 59.8 11.4 13.7 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 13.6 14.0 13.1 1.9 72.1 65.7 10.2 11.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 14.2 10.3 1.3 62.1 58.0 10.6 12.7 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.2 13.4 1.9 71.2 65.1 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.0 7.4 1.0 60.3 56.4 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.0 15.2 12.8 1.6 66.1 61.5 11.2 13.3 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 14.7 15.0 12.9 1.8 69.8 64.0 11.2 12.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.1 15.5 13.5 1.8 69.6 63.6 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.9 11.9 1.4 64.1 59.6 11.3 13.2 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 15.1 15.3 11.7 1.8 69.2 64.0 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.5 14.4 9.7 1.3 63.6 59.7 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.4 12.6 1.9 70.5 64.9 11.0 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.1 15.7 11.1 1.7 67.2 62.3 10.8 13.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.2 9.3 1.2 61.7 57.6 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 14.7 15.1 13.3 2.0 71.7 65.7 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------