***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.9 13.6 0.8 60.4 56.7 13.3 14.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.1 13.4 0.8 60.2 56.5 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.4 13.8 0.7 58.1 55.2 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.3 11.3 0.8 59.2 55.7 5.9 7.4 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.2 11.9 0.5 55.9 53.6 14.0 15.7 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.2 9.8 0.5 55.9 52.9 13.0 14.6 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.9 13.5 0.9 61.8 57.6 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.0 10.2 0.4 53.9 51.4 2.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.9 12.2 0.4 54.8 52.8 13.8 15.5 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 11.0 0.4 54.0 51.9 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.1 11.7 0.5 55.9 53.3 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.3 11.2 0.5 55.3 52.6 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.4 10.4 0.6 56.3 53.5 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.2 12.0 0.3 52.9 51.6 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.9 12.3 1.0 62.1 57.4 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.7 11.2 0.6 57.3 54.4 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.0 13.3 0.8 60.6 56.8 12.8 14.2 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.6 10.7 0.4 54.2 51.9 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.1 13.5 0.7 59.0 55.7 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.5 7.8 0.4 54.5 51.4 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.1 13.0 0.5 56.1 53.8 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.8 13.1 0.6 57.5 54.6 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.3 13.6 0.6 57.6 54.7 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.1 12.1 0.4 54.1 52.3 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.0 12.0 0.8 59.8 56.3 13.7 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.0 10.3 0.7 58.0 54.5 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.3 12.9 0.9 60.7 56.9 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.9 16.1 11.6 0.8 59.6 55.9 13.6 15.2 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.5 9.7 0.4 54.6 52.0 8.3 10.1 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.0 13.5 0.8 60.3 56.6 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------