***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.9 13.1 2.3 83.4 77.1 10.8 12.1 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 13.8 14.8 13.0 2.3 83.6 77.2 11.1 12.3 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 14.2 15.2 13.4 2.3 81.9 75.6 11.5 12.7 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 6.4 7.6 10.6 2.5 82.6 76.7 3.2 4.6 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 14.2 15.1 11.5 2.1 78.7 72.7 11.4 12.7 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 13.1 13.9 9.7 2.1 78.5 71.9 10.3 11.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 13.5 14.6 13.0 2.3 83.9 77.6 10.8 12.0 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 2.9 3.4 9.6 1.6 73.8 67.7 0.3 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 14.2 15.0 12.2 2.1 78.9 72.6 11.3 12.6 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 14.1 14.5 10.6 1.7 74.1 68.1 11.3 12.6 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.2 15.0 11.7 2.1 78.7 72.3 11.3 12.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.5 14.3 10.8 1.9 77.9 71.4 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.4 15.1 10.7 1.9 77.8 71.2 11.6 12.9 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 14.3 15.1 12.1 1.9 77.5 70.7 11.8 13.0 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 14.1 15.5 12.2 2.8 85.5 79.9 10.6 12.0 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 14.7 15.6 11.1 2.1 79.4 72.8 11.8 13.2 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 12.9 13.9 12.7 2.2 83.4 77.1 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 13.7 14.2 10.1 1.7 74.0 67.6 11.0 12.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 13.8 14.9 13.2 2.3 83.1 76.6 11.1 12.3 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 8.9 9.1 7.3 1.3 70.5 64.3 6.2 7.5 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.2 15.1 13.0 2.1 79.8 73.7 11.5 12.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 13.7 14.7 12.7 2.1 81.7 75.1 11.2 12.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.2 15.4 13.4 2.3 82.6 75.8 11.6 12.8 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 14.2 15.0 12.1 2.0 77.6 71.0 11.6 12.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 13.8 14.8 11.8 2.3 82.2 76.3 11.0 12.2 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.9 9.9 2.0 80.2 73.5 11.1 12.4 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 13.9 15.0 12.5 2.3 82.5 76.3 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 14.4 15.7 11.3 2.6 83.3 77.3 10.8 12.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 8.8 9.3 9.2 1.6 73.5 67.1 6.1 7.4 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 13.7 14.7 13.1 2.3 83.4 77.1 11.0 12.1 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------