***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.9 6.2 13.6 82.4 54.4 48.2 2.7 5.3 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.8 12.9 88.3 57.4 51.2 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.7 6.8 12.7 76.8 50.9 45.5 3.3 6.5 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 5.7 11.0 57.4 39.6 35.8 4.5 7.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.6 4.5 11.7 66.0 43.3 39.0 2.7 5.9 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.5 2.5 8.6 51.8 33.4 30.6 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 4.7 4.9 12.5 87.3 57.5 51.8 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 5.4 6.0 9.1 48.3 31.9 29.3 6.2 11.3 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.3 12.1 70.8 46.4 41.4 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.7 10.9 59.1 38.8 35.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.3 9.8 56.4 37.7 34.1 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.5 2.7 8.5 50.8 33.5 30.9 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.4 3.8 9.8 56.0 35.7 32.6 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.8 10.7 16.9 82.4 53.3 46.9 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.4 2.8 8.0 45.5 36.5 31.9 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.0 10.2 58.7 38.2 34.5 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.0 4.6 13.8 95.7 60.7 55.8 1.7 3.3 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.8 12.3 63.2 41.1 37.1 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.6 13.4 87.5 56.5 50.3 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 2.0 1.9 10.5 45.8 30.1 27.6 2.3 5.0 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.9 12.3 71.3 47.5 42.3 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.8 5.7 15.7 102.8 62.9 57.5 2.1 3.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.2 14.1 85.7 54.9 48.7 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.3 13.8 73.8 48.6 43.0 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.3 14.0 76.0 50.4 44.9 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.0 2.0 8.4 49.4 31.7 28.9 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.4 5.7 13.9 81.7 54.0 48.1 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.6 9.3 52.1 37.7 33.5 2.9 5.7 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.1 6.2 11.9 57.0 37.2 33.9 5.2 9.7 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.1 5.8 12.6 84.2 55.3 49.2 2.6 4.9 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------