***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 3.3 4.4 14.2 114.0 67.5 59.6 1.6 2.8 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 3.8 5.3 13.2 115.7 68.1 59.6 1.9 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.9 10.0 15.8 122.2 70.1 61.8 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.8 10.5 18.3 130.9 72.9 62.9 3.1 5.4 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 8.2 9.5 19.2 140.5 75.8 65.6 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 8.0 10.3 20.3 148.8 78.3 67.2 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.6 4.6 12.4 113.5 67.4 59.2 2.0 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 15.8 18.4 20.7 147.0 77.8 66.9 7.5 10.7 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 10.6 11.9 19.5 138.5 75.3 65.4 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 13.6 15.9 20.9 145.9 77.2 67.7 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.6 14.7 19.7 144.8 77.2 67.0 2.7 5.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 9.8 12.0 18.9 142.9 76.8 65.5 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 8.1 10.2 21.4 150.5 78.5 68.8 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 13.2 14.1 20.8 133.7 73.8 64.6 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.2 8.3 16.8 125.5 71.5 60.5 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 8.2 10.0 19.7 146.1 77.4 67.2 2.6 4.5 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.3 4.5 12.8 117.7 68.9 59.6 1.8 2.9 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 11.3 13.0 21.2 138.1 75.1 65.3 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 4.6 6.6 14.2 119.8 69.4 60.4 2.2 3.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 8.8 9.8 23.8 135.5 74.0 63.8 3.6 5.6 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 8.6 9.8 18.1 133.7 73.8 64.9 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 3.5 5.1 14.1 119.0 69.2 59.4 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.8 7.0 15.8 125.9 71.3 61.3 2.3 3.9 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 13.6 15.1 19.7 132.8 73.6 64.3 3.2 6.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 7.1 7.4 17.7 123.1 70.5 63.1 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 5.5 6.9 19.8 144.3 77.0 65.9 1.6 3.0 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 5.3 7.6 15.4 115.9 68.1 61.3 2.3 4.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 7.1 8.0 17.8 132.9 73.5 62.4 2.0 3.9 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 17.5 20.5 22.1 137.5 75.0 65.5 4.7 9.1 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 3.6 4.9 13.4 114.6 67.7 59.5 1.9 3.1 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------