***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.4 6.7 10.1 74.8 53.8 43.4 3.1 6.0 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.8 10.1 83.7 56.9 44.3 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.6 10.5 79.2 55.6 45.0 3.5 7.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.1 10.3 10.7 71.5 50.9 42.0 5.7 10.0 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.2 6.7 10.8 73.8 52.4 44.6 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.3 11.5 73.2 50.4 43.9 5.5 9.2 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.0 9.6 79.0 54.7 43.6 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 13.3 12.3 81.4 55.1 47.3 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.0 11.7 78.1 54.3 46.0 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.5 9.2 12.7 80.6 54.8 47.3 4.0 7.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.8 8.3 10.5 74.9 53.0 45.6 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.9 10.7 77.4 53.7 46.1 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.2 10.6 11.4 72.7 51.4 44.2 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.3 13.6 80.4 55.4 46.1 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.0 10.6 74.7 52.8 40.4 3.7 8.0 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.1 7.8 10.6 71.9 51.3 44.1 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.8 7.5 10.4 86.0 58.1 45.1 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 8.4 13.8 82.9 55.2 48.1 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.8 10.4 84.3 57.2 44.8 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.3 10.1 15.4 82.3 54.7 47.3 4.9 8.8 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.9 10.7 75.5 53.7 44.8 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.9 9.4 11.5 89.9 60.0 45.8 4.1 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.9 9.8 10.8 81.9 56.6 45.4 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.0 12.8 82.3 55.8 47.0 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.6 8.0 10.4 67.5 50.0 41.3 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.9 11.7 77.9 54.7 45.3 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.5 10.0 69.7 51.0 41.6 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 6.9 10.6 73.4 51.6 42.5 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 15.0 13.8 14.2 82.5 54.9 48.2 6.7 12.0 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.0 10.2 82.4 56.6 44.4 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------