***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.9 25.7 48.7 88.3 46.5 43.7 20.2 27.1 35.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 16.3 24.2 45.4 91.7 49.7 46.3 16.2 24.5 34.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 25.3 35.0 50.2 90.3 48.1 44.9 25.1 36.4 49.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 29.8 36.1 53.2 84.6 42.4 39.8 31.2 40.1 49.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 24.7 34.0 55.4 91.9 48.4 43.4 26.0 34.9 45.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 25.0 32.4 55.8 92.5 47.4 44.7 25.8 33.6 42.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 13.4 20.4 43.5 89.8 48.5 45.6 13.7 21.1 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 50.6 62.7 58.0 93.4 48.7 44.8 52.6 63.6 75.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.6 33.0 58.1 95.3 51.5 45.3 23.2 32.2 42.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 31.1 42.4 60.5 94.8 50.2 44.9 31.9 42.1 53.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 25.9 37.3 53.9 92.5 48.4 44.2 27.7 38.4 50.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 24.7 35.1 52.5 93.0 48.6 45.2 26.3 35.8 46.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 28.5 38.5 57.9 94.2 49.1 46.0 29.7 38.9 49.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 57.3 51.3 66.9 95.2 51.5 47.7 37.5 50.3 64.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 19.4 25.2 47.6 80.3 40.6 38.7 20.3 32.4 47.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 25.1 33.4 54.9 92.8 48.5 44.8 26.4 34.1 42.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.4 23.8 46.1 94.5 52.5 49.0 15.2 22.5 31.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 40.9 36.3 64.0 94.6 50.0 45.2 27.4 36.3 46.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 21.9 30.9 47.7 92.8 50.2 46.6 21.8 30.9 41.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 26.9 33.9 69.1 89.5 44.9 42.1 27.4 37.0 47.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 23.1 31.5 54.1 91.8 49.0 44.5 23.1 32.2 42.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.4 51.5 98.8 55.5 51.0 18.8 25.9 34.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 36.0 31.8 51.7 93.5 50.4 47.2 23.3 31.7 40.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 52.3 46.7 61.2 94.9 51.2 46.6 34.3 46.0 59.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 23.1 29.2 54.6 86.8 44.0 41.6 24.2 32.1 41.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 18.6 26.9 54.2 91.7 47.3 45.0 19.8 28.2 38.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 34.7 28.3 50.6 87.2 45.0 42.8 23.0 30.7 39.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 20.6 27.1 50.8 84.8 42.9 40.3 21.7 31.0 41.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 67.4 58.4 65.7 92.4 47.8 44.1 46.2 60.2 76.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 31.0 25.4 45.7 90.2 48.5 45.4 18.1 26.2 35.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------