***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.0 1.9 2.0 -0.5 42.8 45.6 1.1 2.5 3.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.6 1.9 -0.6 42.0 44.8 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.1 2.2 -0.4 44.7 47.4 3.1 4.5 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -0.7 -2.3 -0.8 -0.6 42.3 46.1 -3.3 -1.4 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 1.8 1.2 -0.1 -0.1 48.2 50.6 0.0 1.3 2.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -0.8 0.8 -2.2 0.2 52.2 54.1 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 2.9 1.7 1.9 -0.6 41.7 44.5 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -4.1 -4.9 -2.2 0.0 49.9 52.4 -6.7 -4.9 -3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.5 0.3 -0.1 49.1 51.2 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.3 -1.5 -0.1 48.6 51.0 1.3 2.4 3.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.3 -0.7 0.1 51.2 53.1 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 1.6 1.2 -1.3 0.2 52.7 54.5 -0.3 1.0 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.0 -1.6 0.2 52.4 54.0 0.7 1.8 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.0 -0.1 -0.1 48.0 50.5 2.0 3.1 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.3 0.4 -0.3 45.3 47.6 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.8 -1.1 0.1 51.8 53.4 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 3.0 1.8 1.7 -0.6 41.1 44.2 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -0.6 0.5 -2.2 -0.1 48.7 51.1 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 2.9 1.8 1.9 -0.5 43.0 45.7 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -4.0 -2.5 -4.1 -0.1 48.4 50.9 -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.0 1.5 -0.3 46.4 49.0 1.0 2.3 3.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 2.5 1.3 1.5 -0.6 40.7 44.2 0.8 2.0 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 2.4 1.6 1.7 -0.3 45.1 47.6 0.8 1.9 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.2 -0.2 -0.1 48.6 51.0 1.2 2.3 3.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 2.6 1.6 0.6 -0.5 43.5 46.3 0.8 2.1 3.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 2.2 2.0 -1.7 0.3 53.6 55.0 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 3.0 1.8 1.5 -0.5 43.5 46.1 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 -0.6 0.7 -0.4 -0.3 45.4 48.1 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -2.6 -0.7 -2.8 -0.1 48.9 51.1 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.0 2.0 -0.5 42.3 45.0 1.2 2.7 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------