***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 9.6 9.6 9.9 0.3 52.6 52.6 6.9 9.2 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 10.0 9.6 9.7 0.0 49.7 49.8 7.4 9.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 10.5 11.3 10.9 1.1 59.0 58.7 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 2.9 0.6 4.9 -1.5 37.4 38.0 0.0 2.2 4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 10.6 11.5 9.2 1.1 59.5 59.1 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 47 53 100 11.0 11.1 8.4 2.0 66.6 65.9 6.8 9.0 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 9.7 9.1 9.5 -0.2 48.4 48.6 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 1.9 1.8 8.3 2.0 66.3 65.6 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 10.6 11.6 10.3 1.2 60.4 59.9 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 10.7 12.0 9.1 1.7 63.5 62.9 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 10.7 12.5 10.6 2.0 66.3 65.6 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.3 9.6 2.3 69.8 69.0 7.4 9.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 13.5 13.5 11.0 2.9 73.1 72.3 8.2 10.4 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.2 11.5 2.4 68.7 67.9 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 4.9 5.3 5.3 -3.4 21.9 22.9 7.1 9.5 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 12.8 12.7 9.7 1.9 65.2 64.6 8.4 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 9.7 8.6 8.8 -0.5 44.8 45.3 7.1 9.2 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 10.4 11.9 8.6 1.9 65.2 64.6 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 10.0 10.2 10.3 0.5 54.7 54.5 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 7.3 7.3 6.6 2.0 67.4 66.7 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 10.6 11.6 11.1 1.3 60.7 60.1 7.9 10.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 10.4 9.4 9.3 -0.3 46.9 47.2 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 10.8 12.0 11.3 1.5 62.8 62.0 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 12.8 12.8 11.0 2.1 66.6 65.9 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 9.9 9.7 8.7 0.2 51.5 51.6 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 13.1 13.2 9.0 2.7 74.3 73.5 7.9 10.0 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 10.1 10.3 9.6 0.4 54.1 54.0 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.9 7.5 5.7 -1.8 34.7 35.4 7.3 9.8 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 7.3 7.4 8.3 2.2 67.8 67.2 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 9.9 9.6 9.8 0.1 50.9 51.0 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------