***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.6 9.8 -0.8 41.0 43.8 9.7 11.6 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 9.9 11.0 9.8 -0.8 40.7 43.7 10.2 11.9 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.5 10.3 -0.5 44.3 46.2 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 0.9 1.7 5.8 -1.7 32.6 36.4 1.8 3.8 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.6 8.5 -0.4 45.5 47.2 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.5 10.7 7.0 -0.1 49.4 49.5 9.0 10.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.5 9.6 -0.9 38.7 42.1 9.8 11.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -0.9 1.4 7.4 0.2 51.9 51.5 -0.5 1.2 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 9.6 11.8 9.6 -0.1 48.8 49.6 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.6 12.1 8.3 0.1 51.4 51.5 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 9.4 11.9 9.1 0.0 50.2 50.5 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.9 11.4 8.2 0.1 51.0 50.9 9.4 11.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 9.9 12.2 8.3 0.0 49.7 50.2 10.4 12.2 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.4 9.7 -0.1 49.0 49.8 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.3 7.7 -1.5 33.3 37.3 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 10.2 12.4 8.4 -0.1 48.6 49.3 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 9.1 10.0 9.4 -0.9 38.2 41.9 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.6 12.0 7.9 0.2 51.9 52.0 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 9.8 11.1 10.1 -0.6 42.7 45.2 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.0 7.3 5.5 0.1 50.9 51.1 5.4 7.3 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.9 11.7 10.1 -0.4 45.5 47.2 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.1 9.8 -0.7 40.9 43.9 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.2 11.9 10.4 -0.4 45.1 46.9 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.2 12.3 9.6 0.0 49.6 50.4 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 9.2 10.5 8.3 -0.8 40.3 43.4 9.7 11.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.6 11.8 7.1 -0.1 48.9 49.1 10.2 11.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.5 10.7 9.2 -0.8 40.3 43.3 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.8 9.8 6.9 -1.4 35.6 38.8 9.4 11.6 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 7.2 7.1 0.1 51.6 51.7 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.8 9.9 -0.7 41.3 44.0 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------