***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 11.4 11.9 10.4 -1.4 34.4 40.2 11.8 13.6 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 11.1 11.6 10.3 -1.4 33.4 38.9 11.5 13.2 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.2 10.8 -1.3 35.4 41.3 11.9 13.8 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.7 3.3 7.9 -1.6 32.8 38.9 3.3 5.8 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.8 12.3 9.2 -1.2 37.3 42.9 11.8 13.9 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.6 11.4 7.5 -0.9 40.6 44.7 10.4 12.6 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 10.8 11.2 10.2 -1.5 32.7 38.3 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.9 1.0 7.8 -0.9 40.3 44.6 0.1 2.1 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 14.7 12.4 9.7 -1.1 38.2 43.8 11.7 13.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 11.1 12.3 8.5 -1.1 39.2 44.1 11.5 13.6 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.4 9.1 -1.1 38.8 43.8 11.6 13.8 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.9 11.6 8.7 -0.9 39.8 44.4 10.7 12.9 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.5 12.3 8.0 -1.0 39.0 43.7 11.5 13.7 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 11.5 12.5 9.4 -1.3 36.6 42.2 12.1 14.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.3 9.0 -1.3 35.1 40.9 11.0 13.3 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.1 12.7 8.6 -1.1 38.4 43.5 12.0 14.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 10.2 10.7 10.1 -1.4 32.8 38.3 10.7 12.3 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.9 8.1 -1.1 38.6 43.5 11.2 13.3 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 11.2 11.8 10.5 -1.4 34.4 39.9 11.6 13.4 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.1 6.8 5.5 -1.0 39.1 43.2 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.7 12.3 10.3 -1.2 36.8 42.6 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.7 10.2 -1.4 33.7 39.3 11.6 13.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 11.6 12.4 10.7 -1.3 35.7 41.3 12.1 13.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 11.4 12.4 9.4 -1.2 37.2 42.8 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.7 8.9 -1.4 34.8 40.6 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.1 12.0 8.0 -0.7 41.5 45.6 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 11.2 11.7 9.7 -1.4 34.2 39.9 11.6 13.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.5 8.4 -1.4 34.7 40.5 11.3 13.7 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.7 6.9 7.1 -1.1 38.5 43.1 6.1 8.3 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.5 10.3 -1.4 33.6 39.2 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------