***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.9 11.8 -0.9 38.8 43.3 13.3 15.0 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 13.4 14.1 11.6 -1.0 37.2 41.6 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 13.5 14.7 12.1 -0.8 39.4 43.6 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.4 6.4 9.4 -0.9 39.0 44.4 5.8 7.5 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 13.3 14.7 10.3 -0.8 40.5 45.2 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.2 8.6 -0.4 45.3 47.7 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 13.2 13.9 11.5 -1.0 36.9 41.3 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.8 2.9 8.7 -0.7 42.1 45.4 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 13.2 14.5 10.7 -0.8 41.0 45.3 13.7 15.4 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 13.4 14.7 9.5 -0.8 41.7 45.3 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 13.4 14.7 10.1 -0.7 41.7 45.9 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.9 9.7 -0.7 42.1 45.8 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.7 15.0 9.0 -0.7 42.0 45.5 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 13.8 14.9 10.6 -0.9 40.2 43.6 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 13.0 14.3 10.5 -0.7 41.5 46.5 13.5 15.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 13.9 15.2 9.7 -0.7 41.9 45.9 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 12.5 13.3 11.4 -1.0 36.6 41.0 13.0 14.3 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 13.0 14.3 9.1 -0.8 41.8 44.9 13.4 15.1 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.4 14.2 11.8 -0.9 38.0 42.2 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.0 9.2 6.3 -0.8 40.6 43.3 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 13.4 14.6 11.5 -0.8 40.4 44.8 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 13.3 14.1 11.4 -1.0 36.9 41.2 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.8 12.0 -0.9 39.3 43.1 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.8 10.6 -0.8 41.0 44.6 14.0 15.6 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 13.4 14.3 10.2 -0.9 39.3 44.3 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.4 14.6 8.8 -0.6 43.3 46.3 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 13.6 14.4 11.1 -0.9 38.6 43.3 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 13.1 14.3 9.8 -0.8 40.6 45.6 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.1 8.1 -0.8 41.1 44.0 8.3 10.0 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.3 14.1 11.6 -1.0 37.6 42.0 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------