***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.5 10.5 -0.7 38.9 41.9 11.1 12.3 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.6 10.3 -0.8 36.6 39.7 11.4 12.5 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.5 11.0 -0.4 43.6 45.9 11.7 12.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.1 3.1 7.0 -1.4 29.5 34.4 3.4 4.8 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.6 9.3 -0.3 45.0 47.4 11.6 12.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.9 7.9 0.2 52.5 53.0 10.5 11.8 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.2 10.2 -0.9 35.2 38.5 11.1 12.2 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.2 1.8 8.0 0.1 52.0 52.5 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.6 10.1 -0.2 47.0 49.0 11.5 12.8 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.8 8.9 0.0 50.1 51.1 11.5 12.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.9 9.7 0.1 51.1 52.1 11.5 12.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 10.6 12.4 9.0 0.2 53.2 53.7 10.8 12.1 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 11.5 13.4 9.1 0.3 54.4 54.5 11.7 13.0 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.3 10.3 0.0 50.6 51.6 12.0 13.2 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 10.4 10.1 8.1 -1.7 24.9 30.4 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.3 9.1 0.0 49.8 51.1 12.0 13.3 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.5 10.7 9.9 -1.0 33.3 37.1 10.6 11.8 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.6 8.4 0.1 50.8 51.6 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.9 10.7 -0.6 40.1 42.7 11.3 12.5 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.7 6.0 0.1 51.1 51.3 6.3 7.7 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.6 10.8 -0.3 45.4 47.6 11.7 12.9 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.1 11.6 10.2 -0.9 35.3 38.9 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.5 12.8 11.1 -0.3 45.6 47.5 11.9 13.1 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.1 10.2 0.0 50.2 51.4 11.8 13.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.6 9.0 -0.7 38.6 42.0 11.2 12.4 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.0 8.2 0.3 55.6 55.5 11.3 12.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.1 11.8 9.9 -0.7 39.2 42.2 11.3 12.6 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 10.8 10.8 7.7 -1.4 30.5 35.2 11.1 12.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.7 7.6 0.1 51.6 52.0 6.3 7.6 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.5 10.4 -0.7 37.7 40.6 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------