***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9.1 10.5 22.0 140.5 75.7 70.4 2.6 4.8 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 8.0 9.0 18.9 141.0 75.6 71.7 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 47 53 100 10.0 11.2 19.9 125.8 71.4 66.5 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 47 53 100 11.2 13.1 24.0 130.1 72.6 66.9 3.2 6.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 6.9 11.8 22.3 124.9 70.9 64.6 2.4 5.3 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 9.6 10.7 22.3 133.7 74.4 67.1 2.2 4.5 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 7.2 8.2 19.2 148.5 77.5 73.4 1.8 3.4 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 12.2 16.0 20.6 108.2 63.8 59.2 4.7 9.7 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 5.3 7.9 19.5 116.6 68.2 62.5 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 6.8 8.2 19.6 102.6 61.6 56.5 2.3 5.1 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 11.2 11.7 21.6 124.8 70.4 65.3 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 6.7 9.5 20.0 119.0 68.6 63.5 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.6 11.8 22.5 121.2 69.6 63.7 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 8.0 12.1 22.0 108.2 65.2 61.4 3.0 6.6 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 8.5 9.6 21.8 134.1 73.8 68.8 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 10.8 12.2 23.7 137.6 74.6 68.7 2.9 5.5 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.8 7.2 17.9 147.1 77.2 71.9 1.4 2.8 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 6.6 7.3 19.7 97.8 59.5 54.8 2.4 5.2 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 8.3 9.1 19.1 135.5 74.2 70.3 2.1 4.1 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 7.0 9.1 25.6 111.5 64.2 60.0 2.7 5.5 9.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 8.8 9.7 21.0 126.7 71.5 66.1 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 5.8 6.5 17.6 135.6 74.3 69.1 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 8.6 9.2 19.8 129.0 72.3 68.1 1.8 3.9 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 7.7 10.4 19.5 105.4 63.7 58.8 2.9 6.2 11.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 9.7 11.4 25.0 141.6 76.0 70.0 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 8.0 9.2 22.8 130.0 72.9 66.9 1.8 3.9 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 9.5 11.1 23.2 143.6 76.5 71.1 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 9.6 10.7 21.9 129.0 72.4 66.6 2.6 5.1 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 10.3 11.6 20.6 97.9 59.3 54.6 4.0 8.4 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 8.0 8.6 19.3 137.3 74.7 70.7 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------